| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FITB | 50.37 | 45.7B | 4.8% | 30.48% | 10.8 | 0.82 | 3.3B | 40.68 | 59.50 |
| CLF | 12.08 | 6.9B | 13.9% | 81.13% | 16.0 | 0.24 | 5.7B | 7.73 | 16.70 |
The week opens after the worst stretch for tech since June. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.48% to 26,140.03 last week, the S&P 500 lost 1.95% to 7,659.44 and the Dow gave back 0.67% to 52,002.41. Semiconductors and hardware led the decline. CoreWeave's roughly $50B debt load put the financing of the AI build-out on the front page, and higher Treasury yields kept pressure on long-duration growth. The 10-year has been in a 5.0-5.3% range (5.28% on Oct 8), the 30-year sits near 5.6%, and the Fed hiked 25 bp in September with another move still part of the discussion. META closed Friday at $709.33, down 3.7% on the day.
This week tests whether the earnings base can carry that tape. About 200 names report. LSEG has S&P 500 Q3 earnings growth tracking above 30% y/y, helped by base effects and mega-cap contribution, so the bar for "good" is high and the market has been selling strength in the AI complex rather than rewarding it. Tuesday brings NFLX after the close plus an industrial and defense block in the morning (GE, RTX, NOC, GM, SYF, KEY). Wednesday is the heaviest session: META, TSLA, LRCX, TXN, IBM and SAP after the close, with CSX, KMI and URI alongside. Thursday carries PG, UNP, WDC, NEM and BE, and Friday has AXP and SLB. Briefing lists a handful of names without a confirmed time; those are flagged as such in the daily notes.
The macro calendar is thin by comparison. The Fed is in its blackout ahead of the next FOMC, so the rate narrative will come from the data and the long end: NAHB today, housing starts and permits plus pending home sales Tuesday, EIA Wednesday, jobless claims (about 200K expected) and LEI Thursday, and Friday's flash PMIs (manufacturing 55.5 expected, services 58.0) with final UoM sentiment. UoM was 46.3 last time with 1-year inflation expectations at 4.7%. Oil is elevated, with WTI in the $90s and Brent having touched $105 in mid-September on Iran tension. Hot PMIs would feed the hike debate, soft housing would be consistent with a 5%+ 10-year doing its work.
The names map onto the usual threads. AI capex versus backlog: META's 2026 capex guide of $130-145B, with LRCX, TXN, IBM and WDC as supply-side reads on whether orders match the spend. Funding strain: NBIS is on Thursday's unconfirmed list after CoreWeave's debt week. Agents versus seats: PEGA Tuesday, SAP Wednesday, IBM software. Memory barometer: WDC Thursday for storage, LRCX for NAND and DRAM equipment. Power and grid: NEE, KMI, PCG, BE, FIX, VICR and NVT. Consumer credit: SYF, COF and ALLY Tuesday, then SLM, ENVA and BFH Thursday. Freight: CSX Wednesday, UNP and NSC Thursday, with the airlines (UAL, ALK Tuesday, LUV Wednesday, AAL Thursday). Monday itself is two names before the open, FITB and CLF, which set the first reads on bank credit and domestic steel.
FITB ($50.37) — first full read on the Comerica combination, with the NII and expense guides as the test. Briefing consensus is $0.82 EPS on $3.34B revenue; other feeds show a $1.09 EPS estimate that appears to be on an adjusted basis, so the GAAP versus ex-charges gap matters here. Q2 EPS was $0.83 reported and $1.02 excluding certain items, after $203M of merger-related charges. The deal with Comerica has closed and is in integration (average loans in 2026 include roughly 11 months of Comerica, with the systems conversion set for Labor Day weekend). Guidance on the Q2 call: Q3 net interest income up 2-2.5% from Q2's $2.22B, full-year NII raised to $8.74-8.80B, adjusted expense down 1-2% in Q3 with the full-year range cut and narrowed to $7.22-7.26B, and $850M of annualized synergies by Q4 with management saying it is running "a good bit ahead." Credit was clean: net charge-offs 30 bp, the lowest since Q2 2023, commercial criticized assets down. CET1 was 9.93%, with buybacks restarting small in Q3 and $200-300M per quarter in Q4. Implied vol of 30.5% is modest. The bull read is another NII raise and synergy upside flowing to the Q4 run-rate. The bear read is that a stock near $50 with a 52-week range of $40.68-$59.50 already discounts a clean integration, and a low CET1 limits how fast capital can be returned. One data point matters for the week: banks reporting last week had broadly fine credit and nudged NII guides up, so FITB is a test of whether the merger-heavy name follows.
CLF ($12.08) — domestic steel pricing is strong, but the Canadian tariff problem is now a visible drag. Briefing consensus is $0.24 EPS (a $0.21-0.24 range elsewhere) on $5.72B revenue. In Q2 Cliffs lost $0.20 adjusted on $5.2B revenue, with adjusted EBITDA of $286M, shipments of 4.0M tons and a realized price of $1,124 per ton, up from $1,048 in Q1. The company guided Q3 adjusted EBITDA to about $575M and said Q4 would exceed it, which is the core of the setup: a doubling of EBITDA is already in the number, and the question is whether the quarter lands at or above it. Management also said imports remain subdued and lead times are extending, and held 2026 shipments at 16.5-17.0M tons, capex near $700M. Debt is the other axis: long-term debt of $7.7B against $3.1B of liquidity, with a target of debt/EBITDA below 2.5x by about a year out. Since the quarter ended, Cliffs announced it is idling the cold-rolled and coated lines at Stelco's Hamilton, Ontario plant on US tariffs (up to 500 employees affected, wind-down from Oct 9), concentrating Canadian production at Nanticoke. That is a Q4 item, not a Q3 one, but it will color the call and the 2027 cost base. Implied vol of 81% and 14% short interest mean the stock can move a lot on any single line: guidance for Q4, the pace of debt paydown, or the Section 232 commentary. The call is at 8:30 a.m. ET.
No other Monday morning reporters on the Briefing list. The two names above are the full pre-market slate.
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | 240.54 | 34.5B | 3.5% | 43.55% | 10.0 | 5.40 | 6.5B | 144.78 | 288.74 |
| WRB | 75.42 | 28.0B | 5.6% | 27.61% | 13.8 | 1.16 | 3.2B | 62.87 | 78.96 |
| CCK | 114.15 | 12.4B | 2.7% | 32.93% | 12.1 | 2.26 | 3.5B | 91.31 | 122.91 |
| WTFC | 144.83 | 9.7B | 4.4% | 24.12% | 10.9 | 3.31 | 754M | 122.00 | 167.22 |
| ZION | 63.37 | 9.2B | 5.1% | 36.27% | 9.1 | 1.65 | 892M | 48.50 | 73.34 |
| WAL | 74.51 | 8.1B | 5.9% | 45.77% | 6.6 | 2.43 | 987M | 65.82 | 97.23 |
| BOKF | 124.83 | 7.6B | 11.5% | 25.87% | 12.1 | 2.52 | 571M | 102.72 | 146.84 |
| FNB | 17.23 | 6.1B | 8.8% | 42.54% | 9.7 | 0.43 | 476M | 15.19 | 19.59 |
| RLI | 61.07 | 5.6B | 10.9% | 30.12% | 20.5 | 0.53 | 467M | 47.26 | 67.12 |
Monday's after-the-close slate is a materials-and-financials block: steel (STLD), packaging (CCK), a large specialty insurer (WRB), and six regional banks and insurers (ZION, WAL, WTFC, BOKF, FNB, RLI). It sits between the morning's FITB and CLF prints and a Tuesday that adds SYF, KEY, COF, EWBC and the large P&C writer CB. The tape it reports into is the one described above: Nasdaq down 4.5% last week, a 10-year near 5.0-5.3%, a Fed that hiked in September and sits in blackout this week. Higher-for-longer helps asset-sensitive bank margins and reinvestment yields at insurers, and it pressures deposit costs, commercial real estate and anything rate-sensitive in the loan book. Steel and packaging are the real-economy read: domestic steel pricing, aluminum ramp-up and can volumes.
Release times, from each company's own announcement: STLD after the close with the call Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. ET; WRB after the close with a 5:00 p.m. ET call; ZION at 5:30 p.m. ET; CCK after the close with the call Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. ET; WTFC, BOKF, FNB and RLI after the close with calls Tuesday; WAL after the close with the call Tuesday at noon ET. All nine match the Monday p.m. slot in the workbook.
STLD ($240.54) — the company has already pre-announced the quarter, so the print is a test against its own guide. On September 17 Steel Dynamics guided Q3 EPS to $5.34-5.38 versus $3.69 in Q2 and $2.74 a year ago. Briefing consensus is $5.40 on $6.55B revenue, just above the top of the range, so the market is asking for a small beat of the company's own number. The drivers named in the guide: record steel shipments, wider metal margin, higher realized prices and lower scrap; metals recycling lower on spread compression; fabrication modestly better with backlog nearly 50% above last year and extending into Q1 2027; aluminum meaningfully better on volume. In Q2 the average external steel price was $1,298 per ton (up $105 sequentially) against ferrous scrap at $412 (up $16), shipments were a record 3.74M tons, and the aluminum segment lost $33M, a 48% improvement on Q1. Columbus now has all three cold mills running; the first CASH line should ship commercial material in Q4 and the second is to produce qualification material before year-end, with automotive sales expected before the end of 2026. Sinton is not broken out in the guide or the Q2 release (combined flat-roll shipments across Butler, Columbus and Sinton were 2.03M tons in Q2), so the useful Sinton evidence will come from the call. The company has bought back $261M in Q3 so far, just under 1% of the stock. Implied vol is 43.6% and the 52-week range is $144.78-$288.74, so the stock is 17% below the high. The bull read is pricing leverage with extended lead times and a Q4 aluminum inflection. The bear read is that a pre-announced quarter leaves little surprise, and the second half is where aluminum ramp costs and any tariff change would show up.
WRB ($75.42) — underwriting margins versus a soft-ish top line. Briefing consensus is $1.16 EPS on $3.23B revenue. Q2 was $1.15 GAAP and $1.27 operating per share, with a 90.0% combined ratio (91.6% a year ago), catastrophe losses of $62.4M (down from $99.2M) and an accident-year ex-cat combined ratio of 88.1%. Net premiums written grew only 2.4% to $3.43B: Insurance up 3.7%, Reinsurance and Monoline Excess down 9.3%, while gross premiums written reached a record $4.14B. Management's language is about "disciplined cycle management" and selective liability opportunities. Capital return was heavy: $111.5M of buybacks plus $185.5M of special dividends in Q2. The Q2 release does not break out prior-year reserve development and does not mention the Mitsui Sumitomo stake; the first is the number to look for in the Q3 release (casualty reserve adequacy is the debate with the group), the second is a capital-return and governance footnote rather than a Monday driver. Q3 is hurricane season, so the cat load is the swing against a consensus that sits only slightly above Q2's GAAP figure. Implied vol of 27.6% is low, the stock is near its 52-week high of $78.96, and the multiple is 13.8x forward earnings.
ZION ($63.37) — credit and deposit competition, with a big Visa gain still in the base. Briefing consensus is $1.65 EPS on $892M revenue (other feeds $1.64-1.65 and $890-894M). Q2 reported $3.05 per share, but excluding a $215M pretax Visa share gain and a $37M SBIC gain it was $1.74 versus $1.58 a year ago. Credit was very clean: net charge-offs 6 bp, NPA ratio 48 bp, allowance 1.13% of loans (227% of nonaccruals). Net interest income was $677M on a 3.27% margin; management said one hike in the forward curve gets NII to upper-single-digit year-over-year growth by Q2 2027, and moderate growth without it, while describing deposit competition as intense with some campaigns approaching wholesale rates. Loans grew 4.7% annualized, CET1 was 11.8%, buybacks were $75M for the quarter, and the board lifted the dividend $0.03 to $0.48. The consensus sits below the Q2 adjusted figure, which makes the margin and expense line the focus. Nothing in the Q2 credit metrics flags stress, so the debate is margin and deposit pricing rather than losses. Implied vol 36%.
WAL ($74.51) — the credit-quality name on the list, and the one with the most history. Briefing consensus is $2.43 EPS on $987M revenue. Q2 net interest income was $797M (up 4% sequentially, 14% y/y) at a 3.53% margin. The 2026 NII growth outlook is 12-14%, which assumes a September rate hike; the full-year deposit-growth outlook was cut to $6B, loan growth to $5B (management called that a capital allocation choice), and non-interest income growth to 13-17% from 20-25%. Net charge-offs were 37 bp against a 25-35 bp full-year core guide, and non-accruals rose $70M, almost all in one loan that is current on payments. Of six non-accruals discussed at Investor Day, two are resolved and four are expected to be dealt with in 2H26. That is the number to track. The fraud-related charge-offs from 2025 were not mentioned in the Q2 call highlights, and no new fraud or charge-off disclosure since July. Provision was $80M, the allowance $487M (80 bp), CET1 target 11%, $150M of buybacks planned for 2H. Valuation is 6.6x forward with 45.8% implied vol and a 52-week range of $65.82-$97.23, so the stock is 23% off the high. Deposit repricing (about $3B of higher-cost deposits moved off balance sheet in 2026) and net charge-offs back inside the guide are the two lines the stock reacts to.
CCK ($114.15) — beverage can volume and a raised guide. Briefing consensus is $2.26 EPS on $3.45B revenue, inside Crown's own Q3 guide of $2.20-2.30. In Q2 adjusted EPS was $2.49 (up 16%), segment income $501M, and global beverage can volumes grew 5% (North America +5%, Europe +7%, Asia double digits, Latin America softer). Full-year adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $8.30-8.50 from $7.90-8.30, with adjusted free cash flow of at least $900M after about $550M of capex. Net leverage is 2.5x, and Crown bought $305M of stock in Q2, nearly 7% of shares over twelve months. The one number is the Q4 implied by the full-year range: Q1-Q2 actuals plus the Q3 guide leave a Q4 roughly in line with the year-ago level; a narrowing toward the top of the range would signal confidence. Implied vol 32.9%, stock about 7% below its 52-week high of $122.91.
Regional banks. WTFC (consensus $3.31 EPS on $754M) reported Q2 EPS of $3.30 with NII of $597.4M, a 3.50% margin (down 4 bp), net charge-offs of 10 bp, loans up 12% annualized to $55.7B and deposits up 15% annualized; management guided to NII expansion and positive operating leverage in 2026. BOKF (consensus $2.52 on $571M) earned $2.59 adjusted in Q2 ($2.92 reported with a Visa gain), guided 2026 NII to $1.42-1.45B with the upper half expected, fees $820-845M (lower half), provision below $20M, with NPAs 20 bp of loans and net charge-offs of 3 bp over twelve months; loan growth ran 13.7% annualized. FNB (consensus $0.43 on $476M) earned $0.42 in Q2 with NII of $365.7M, a 3.25% margin, net charge-offs of 19 bp and a 53.7% efficiency ratio; it repurchased $47M and gives no formal guidance. In all three the questions are margin direction and whether commercial real estate behaves.
Insurer. RLI (consensus $0.53 on $467M) posted Q2 operating EPS of $0.83, a 85.6 combined ratio, $35.1M of favorable prior-year development, and net investment income up 17%. Casualty drifted to 99.3 from 96.5, which is the soft spot to watch against a Q3 cat load. Forward P/E of 20.5x is the highest in the group.
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | 313.93 | 325.6B | 1.1% | 40.01% | 35.3 | 2.01 | 12.9B | 268.91 | 388.84 |
| RTX | 194.00 | 261.4B | 1.0% | 35.12% | 24.6 | 1.78 | 24.1B | 159.45 | 226.88 |
| MMM | 164.94 | 85.0B | 1.9% | 36.76% | 17.8 | 2.39 | 6.6B | 139.34 | 184.90 |
| NOC | 519.25 | 73.9B | 1.6% | 33.61% | 17.0 | 7.18 | 11.1B | 470.06 | 774.00 |
| GM | 85.00 | 73.7B | 2.3% | 40.83% | 5.6 | 3.63 | 48.8B | 57.68 | 91.85 |
| MSCI | 569.08 | 41.4B | 3.2% | 37.59% | 24.7 | 5.02 | 888M | 501.08 | 644.77 |
| HAL | 33.50 | 27.9B | 5.5% | 38.96% | 11.4 | 0.58 | 5.6B | 22.22 | 43.59 |
| SYF | 73.68 | 24.0B | 7.1% | 37.06% | 6.7 | 2.40 | 3.8B | 63.08 | 88.77 |
| KEY | 19.99 | 21.3B | 4.0% | 29.90% | 9.9 | 0.46 | 2.1B | 16.91 | 24.07 |
| EFX | 161.25 | 18.9B | 5.2% | 53.27% | 16.1 | 2.20 | 1.7B | 137.01 | 238.94 |
| GPC | 133.82 | 18.5B | 5.5% | 41.19% | 15.4 | 2.04 | 6.5B | 90.78 | 151.57 |
| HAS | 98.75 | 13.9B | 6.7% | 42.52% | 13.5 | 1.85 | 1.5B | 69.50 | 106.98 |
| ALLY | 37.68 | 11.5B | 5.1% | 38.65% | 6.0 | 1.33 | 2.3B | 35.92 | 47.29 |
| VICR | 190.50 | 8.8B | 11.5% | 105.98% | 47.2 | 1.24 | 187M | 57.55 | 382.65 |
| VMI | 444.53 | 8.6B | 2.5% | 41.14% | 18.3 | 5.74 | 1.1B | 378.02 | 585.71 |
| AUB | 38.11 | 5.4B | 7.3% | 53.76% | 9.1 | 0.96 | 393M | 30.87 | 43.62 |
Tuesday's pre-market slate is the aerospace-and-defense block (GE, RTX, NOC), a consumer-credit cluster (SYF, ALLY, KEY) that sets the tape for COF tonight and AXP Friday, and GM, MMM, HAL and the data names. It lands after a week in which the Nasdaq lost 4.5%, the 10-year has sat around 5.0-5.3% and another Fed hike is in the discussion. Every large industrial here raised full-year guidance in July, so the question is whether those raises were conservative or already priced. Stocks sit at very different distances from their highs: NOC is about 33% below its 52-week high, GE 19%, RTX 14%, GM 7%.
Oil in the $90s and the U.S.-Iran conflict show up in the Q2 releases as fuel and freight costs (GPC cites both), and in HAL's international mix. Credit names report with Q2 reserve releases at SYF and COF as the comparison base; Q3 consensus at SYF ($2.40 vs $2.59 reported in Q2) already assumes some of that fades.
Two scheduling notes. Philip Morris is listed here by Briefing but its own release puts results at 7:00 a.m. ET Wednesday Oct 21 (details below). Omnicom, a Tuesday-TBD name, reports Thursday after the close. Both are covered in "Flagged as unverified."
GE Aerospace ($313.93) — raised everything in July; the LEAP ramp is the number. Briefing consensus is $2.01 EPS on $12.88B revenue (adjusted EPS was $2.02 in Q2, revenue $12.6B adjusted, orders $16.5B). In July GE lifted FY26 adjusted EPS to $7.65-7.85 from $7.10-7.40, operating profit to $10.55-10.75B from $9.85-10.25B, free cash flow to $8.9-9.2B from $8.0-8.4B, and adjusted revenue growth to high teens from low double digits. LEAP deliveries rose 24% in Q2 and 41% in the first half, while CES services revenue grew 26%. CES margin fell 160 bp to 27.3% on mix, which is the line to check against the raised $10.25-10.35B CES profit guide. Implied vol is 40%, short interest 1%. Bull side: services and shop-visit strength with a raised bar. Bear side: a stock 19% off its high priced at 35x forward earnings has little room for a delivery or margin stumble. RTX's Pratt aftermarket print comes first and is a useful cross-check. The Briefing session (Tuesday a.m.) matches the other lists, but GE's own date announcement was not retrievable (see flags).
RTX ($194.00) — backlog up 22%, GTF removals the open question. Consensus $1.78 on $24.11B (Q2: $1.89 adjusted, $24.7B sales, +16% organic). Backlog was $289B ($170B commercial, $119B defense). FY26 guide went to $7.10-7.25 adjusted EPS from $6.70-6.90, sales to $95-96B from $92.5-93.5B, with FCF narrowed to $8.50-8.75B (low end raised). Pratt & Whitney sales rose 16% with commercial aftermarket +25% and commercial OE -8%, margin 8.3%. The release's forward-looking language still flags a rare powder-metal condition requiring accelerated removals and inspections of a significant part of the PW1100G-JM GTF fleet, with no dollar figure attached. The Q3 consensus sits below Q2 actual, so a repeat of Q2's pace is the beat case. RTX repurchased no stock in H1. IV 35%. Confirmed: pre-market, call 8:30 a.m. ET (RTX release).
Northrop Grumman ($519.25) — B-21 quiet in Q2, stock still 33% below its high. Consensus $7.18 on $11.12B; Q2 diluted EPS was $7.68 on $10.9B sales, segment margin 10.6% (11.8% a year ago). The Q2 release shows no new B-21 charge; the $477M loss provision sits in the prior-year six-month cash flow, and higher B-21 volume drove Aeronautics sales up 13%. FY26 guidance was lifted to sales $43.75-44.25B and MTM-adjusted EPS $28.60-29.10 (from $27.40-27.90), with segment operating income ($4.85-5.00B) and FCF ($3.1-3.5B) reaffirmed. Backlog hit a record $104.7B. Repurchases were $68M in H1 versus $891M a year earlier, so capital return is the swing factor for a stock that has de-rated hard. Whether the margin guide holds without another program charge is the test; Sentinel status was not verifiable in the sources reached. Confirmed: pre-market, webcast 9:30 a.m. ET.
General Motors ($85.00) — guide raised to $12-14, adjusted vs GAAP gap is wide. Consensus $3.63 on $48.76B (Q2: $3.57 EPS-adjusted, $48.0B revenue, EBIT-adjusted $3.9B). July's guide: EBIT-adjusted $14.0-16.0B (from $13.5-15.5B), EPS-adjusted $12.00-14.00 (from $11.50-13.50), adjusted auto FCF $9.5-11.5B. GAAP EPS guidance was cut to $8.98-10.98 because EV strategic-realignment charges ran $2.3B in Q2 and $3.4B in H1, taking total EBIT adjustments to $3.5B from $1.0B. Automotive buybacks were $2.8B in H1 and diluted shares fell to 910M from 976M. The Q2 release does not quantify tariff cost, so the tariff number rests on the call. The stock is within 7% of its 52-week high at 5.6x forward earnings. Confirmed: release about 6:30 a.m. ET, call 8:30 a.m. ET (GM IR).
Philip Morris International ($205.06) — reports Wednesday, not Tuesday. PM's own announcement sets results for about 7:00 a.m. ET Wednesday Oct 21, webcast 9:00 a.m. ET; Briefing's Tuesday slot is wrong. Briefing consensus $2.32 on $11.37B sits above PM's Q3 guide of $2.20-2.25 (which includes about -$0.08 of currency), so the bar is above the company's own range. Q2 adjusted EPS was $2.20 on $11.19B, smoke-free shipments +7.5%, total volume +2.5%. FY26 targets were held: organic revenue +5-7%, currency-neutral EPS +7.5-9.5% ($8.26-8.41 adjusted), with a step-up in H2 U.S. investment mainly behind ZYN. ZYN and IQOS volumes were not in the sources reached. Stock is 3% from its 52-week high, IV 34%.
3M ($164.94) — organic growth and the cash drag shrinking. Consensus $2.39 on $6.61B (Q2 adjusted EPS $2.40, adjusted organic +5.4%, adjusted margin 24.9%). FY26 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $8.80-8.95 from $8.50-8.70, organic growth above 3.5%, FCF $4.7-4.9B. Significant litigation and PFAS exit cash payments were $858M in Q2 against $2.5B a year ago and $960M in H1; the release gives no separate earplug figure. Shares outstanding fell to 515.7M from 530.3M at year-end. A Q3 consensus below the Q2 print implies a guide-led, not run-rate, expectation. Date unconfirmed from 3M IR (aggregators say Tuesday pre-market).
SYF / ALLY / KEY — consumer credit tape before COF. Synchrony (consensus $2.40, release about 6:00 a.m. ET, call 8:00): Q2 EPS $2.59, NCO rate 5.43% (from 5.70%), 90+ delinquency 2.01%, a $163M reserve release that took the allowance to 10.09% of loans, purchase volume +8% to $49.8B, $850M repurchased. The stock is 7% short and priced at 6.7x. Ally ($1.33, release about 7:30 a.m. ET): Q2 adjusted EPS $1.21, retail auto NCO 1.57%, NIM 3.59%, a CECL build for growth, retail deposits down $2.6B sequentially. KeyCorp ($0.46): Q2 EPS $0.44, NIM 2.89%, NCOs 0.42% (0.38% in Q1), nonperforming loans up to 0.73%, investment banking fees down 14% sequentially, $341M repurchased, ROTCE target above 15% by year-end 2027. The watch is whether SYF's release rate and ALLY's auto NCOs hold with the 10-year above 5%, and whether KEY's NIM lift continues. Neither SYF nor ALLY gave numeric full-year guidance in the Q2 release.
Halliburton ($33.50) — North America inflecting, international mixed, consensus below Q2. Consensus $0.58 on $5.58B, which is below Q2's $5.71B revenue and $0.55 adjusted EPS, so revenue is expected to slip. Q2 North America was $2.28B (+7% sequentially), international $3.4B (+5%, Middle East/Asia -2%, Europe/Africa/CIS +19%). Adjusted operating margin was 12%; Drilling and Evaluation margin slid to about 13% from 15%. HAL bought back about $200M and generated $668M of FCF, and management guided only to "revenue growth and margin expansion" with incremental North America improvement. With WTI in the $90s, activity commentary on U.S. land and Middle East recovery is the read for SLB Friday and WFRD tonight. Confirmed: release before the 8:00 a.m. CT call.
Vicor ($190.50) — power-module demand, 106% implied vol. Consensus $1.24 on $187M, versus Q2's $143.4M revenue (product $112.9M, royalty $30.4M) and $1.04 EPS, which included a $10.9M tax benefit. Gross margin recovered to 58.0%, backlog was $380M (+26% sequentially, +145% year over year), and the release cites a second fab. A $187M quarter requires a roughly 30% sequential jump against $380M of backlog, so the call and royalty line carry the print. Litigation accruals were zero at June 30 after a $28.6M prior-award payment in Q1; the Q2 release does not mention ITC proceedings or specific licensing deals and I did not find a primary source for any, so treat patent or ITC chatter as unverified. The stock is 50% below its $382.65 high with 12% short interest. This is the cleanest read in the slate on AI-rack power content. Confirmed: release 7:00 a.m. ET, call 8:00.
MSCI ($569.08) and Equifax ($161.25) — recurring revenue and the mortgage tape. MSCI (consensus $5.02 on $888M, call 11:00 a.m. ET): Q2 revenue +12.2%, recurring run rate +8.1% organically, adjusted EPS $4.94, retention 95.3%, asset-based fees +26.6%; July raised the expense guide ($1,535-1,575M from $1,490-1,530M) on acquisitions and incentive pay, which is the margin watch. Equifax ($2.20 on $1.69B, release 6:30 a.m. ET): Q2 revenue $1.70B, adjusted EPS $2.25, USIS mortgage revenue +40% (U.S. mortgage +25%) despite higher rates. Q3 guide is $1.68-1.71B and $2.15-2.25, with FY EPS $8.39-8.69, so consensus is inside the range. The release does not discuss inquiry volumes; with the 10-year above 5%, the mortgage line is the swing, and EFX is priced at 53% IV with a $750M Círculo de Crédito deal pending.
Consumer and distribution. Hasbro ($98.75; $1.85 on $1.48B): Q2 adjusted EPS $1.28, revenue +16%, Wizards +27% (Magic +32%), Consumer Products an adjusted operating loss of $7.5M attributed to tariffs and a network-access disruption; FY guide raised to 5-7% constant-currency growth and 25-26% adjusted operating margin. Genuine Parts ($133.82; $2.04 on $6.49B): Q2 adjusted EPS $2.15, comps +3.4%; adjusted EPS guide reaffirmed at $7.50-8.00, North America automotive growth trimmed to 2.5-4.5% from 3-5%, separation into two public companies still targeted for Q1 2027.
Industrial. Valmont ($444.53; $5.74 on $1.11B): Q2 sales +6.5% with North America utility +33.9% and irrigation weak (Agriculture -15.8%); FY EPS guide $22.25-23.50 (low end raised from $21.50-23.50), backlog $1.67B.
Regional banks. KeyCorp is above. Atlantic Union ($38.11; $0.96): Q2 adjusted EPS $0.94, NIM 3.89%, NCOs 0.03%, nonperforming assets up to 0.39% on C&I nonaccruals, $240M buyback capacity. Commerce Bancshares ($55.69; $1.07 on $496M): Q2 EPS $1.10, NIM 3.77%, NCOs 0.19%; its date is unconfirmed (see flags).
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | 145.47 | 1.92T | 2.7% | 65.87% | 200.0 | 0.17 | 13.0B | 104.83 | 225.64 |
| NFLX | 70.33 | 293.7B | 2.0% | 50.58% | 18.7 | 0.82 | 12.9B | 65.08 | 124.86 |
| ISRG | 423.00 | 150.7B | 2.1% | 46.32% | 33.3 | 2.64 | 2.9B | 328.57 | 603.88 |
| CB | 359.79 | 138.8B | 0.8% | 23.65% | 11.6 | 6.80 | 13.5B | 266.40 | 365.91 |
| COF | 201.74 | 123.8B | 1.6% | 36.23% | 8.5 | 5.50 | 16.2B | 174.24 | 259.64 |
| UAL | 96.36 | 31.2B | 5.2% | 51.50% | 7.4 | 2.59 | 17.9B | 84.64 | 138.77 |
| EWBC | 126.88 | 17.4B | 3.2% | 29.43% | 12.7 | 2.73 | 811M | 96.03 | 137.47 |
| ELS | 61.21 | 12.3B | 7.2% | 27.33% | 28.6 | 0.50 | 401M | 57.46 | 69.00 |
| ADC | 67.04 | 8.4B | 7.1% | 26.45% | 35.1 | 0.47 | 213M | 64.43 | 82.08 |
| HWC | 73.03 | 5.9B | 10.6% | 29.36% | 10.1 | 1.66 | 421M | 55.11 | 80.13 |
| PEGA | 34.50 | 5.7B | 11.5% | 83.10% | 13.4 | 0.46 | 421M | 25.10 | 68.10 |
| WFRD | 76.19 | 5.4B | 6.6% | 57.41% | 11.1 | 1.27 | 1.1B | 62.84 | 113.15 |
| OZK | 46.12 | 5.0B | 17.4% | 34.70% | 7.6 | 1.43 | 434M | 42.37 | 53.39 |
| ALK | 35.14 | 3.9B | 12.2% | 55.41% | 7.4 | 0.28 | 4.3B | 33.03 | 60.63 |
| LRN | 82.39 | 3.4B | 27.5% | 73.80% | 8.6 | 1.29 | 616M | 60.61 | 155.06 |
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBSH | 55.69 | 8.0B | 4.6% | 37.75% | 13.2 | 1.07 | 496M | 46.99 | 60.92 |
Tuesday after the close carries three separate tests: SpaceX's second report as a public company, Netflix's first print after a content-chief change and a reported 1,000-person layoff, and the card/regional-bank credit set (COF, EWBC, HWC, OZK) following the morning's SYF, ALLY and KEY. UAL and ALK add the airline fuel read, and PEGA is the cleanest agents-versus-seats print of the season. ISRG, listed by Briefing as Tuesday TBD, is confirmed after the close.
The tape matters: the Nasdaq fell 4.5% last week, the 10-year is near 5%, and the Fed is in blackout ahead of next week's meeting. Names with heavy implied vol into the print are PEGA (83%), LRN (74%), SPCX (66%), WFRD (57%), ALK (55%), UAL (52%) and NFLX (51%).
SPCX ($145.47) — it is SpaceX, and it does report Tuesday. SPCX is SpaceX (Nasdaq since June 12, 2026; IPO priced at $135, about $85.7B raised). Coverage of the company's own investor-site release and X post of Friday Oct 16 says Q3 results come Tuesday Oct 20 after the close, with an audio-only webcast at 3:30 p.m. CT / 4:30 p.m. ET, so the week-ahead piece saying no date is wrong. The first report in August showed Q2 revenue of $7.8B (+92%), a net loss of $541M, and Starlink as the largest segment at $4.3B. The workbook shows a $1.92T market cap and $145.47, down from roughly $162 and $2.2T on Oct 9; a lock-up release of up to 328.4M shares fell on Oct 9, while Musk's shares stay locked to June 2027. The workbook consensus of $0.17 EPS and $13.02B revenue looks off against a $7.8B Q2 and a Q2 loss and may be a placeholder; I could not find a sourced consensus. With only one prior report there is little earnings-day history, IV is 66%, and short interest is 3%. Tesla reports Wednesday, and Starship cadence and Starlink subscriber growth are the likely call topics. The primary SpaceX page could not be fetched directly.
Netflix ($70.33) — priced for a reset, with six straight down days on earnings. Briefing consensus is $0.82 EPS on $12.88B, matching the July guide: revenue +12% (11% FX-neutral, about $12.86B), operating margin 33.2% (28.2% a year ago) and EPS $0.82. Q2 was $12.6B revenue (+13%), 33.4% margin and $0.80 EPS. FY26 targets are $51.0-51.4B revenue, a 31.5% operating margin, about $3B of ad revenue (roughly double) and about $12.5B of FCF; the Q2 letter said FCF fell to $1.5B partly on cash taxes tied to the Warner Bros. termination fee. Q2 buybacks were a record $4.7B with $27.1B left. Since then, chief content officer Bela Bajaria's exit (Peter Rice replaces her) was announced Oct 15, and about 1,000 jobs (6%) were cut Oct 14 with no disclosed charge or savings target. The stock fell after each of the last six reports, including 7.3% after July, and sits 44% below its $124.86 high, just above the $65.08 52-week low. IV is 51%; I did not find a quoted straddle. A margin guide below 31.5% would be the clearest negative; ad commitments from the upfronts and any churn from price increases in the U.S., Mexico and Spain are the other inputs. Confirmed after the close (Netflix IR announcement).
Capital One ($201.74) — the Discover integration at month 15. Briefing consensus is $5.50 on $16.24B; Q2 adjusted EPS was $5.81 on $15.9B (net revenue +4%), with a $662M reserve release, net interest margin of 8.01%, Discover integration expense of $298M pre-tax and a 13.7% CET1 ratio. The release gives no NCO rates, synergy dollars or buyback figure, so those come from the call. Consensus sits below Q2 actual, which suggests the reserve release is not extrapolated. Read-through from SYF this morning (NCO 5.43%, allowance 10.09%) and ALLY will frame the tape. The stock is 22% below its high at 8.5x earnings, short interest 2%. The date (Tuesday after the close) is supported by the pattern (Q1 was April 21, 5 p.m. ET) and aggregators, but I did not find Capital One's own Q3 announcement.
Chubb ($359.79) — a soft-market quarter with the stock near its high. Consensus $6.80 on $13.51B (another source shows $6.70 and $15.71B for revenue, so the workbook revenue basis is unclear). Q2 core operating EPS was $7.26 against $6.77 expected: combined ratio 83.8%, catastrophe losses $475M (from $630M), favorable prior-period development $283M, net premiums written +3.6% (P&C +3.0%, +6.3% ex large-account and E&S property). Management called conditions "overly soft" in large-account and E&S property, with softness spreading into some casualty lines. Chubb bought back $979M at $327.18 in Q2. Cat load and reserve releases are the two swing items, and the third quarter's catastrophe tally was not verified. IV is 24% and the stock is within 2% of its $365.91 high, so the read-through is to pricing rather than a large expected move. Confirmed after the close, call 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
United Airlines ($96.36) — a fuel-driven guide range as wide as $1.00. Consensus $2.59 on $17.90B. In July, UAL guided Q3 adjusted EPS of $2.50-3.50 on a $3.69 fuel assumption (fuel had risen $575M, or $1.12 per share, since early July), said it would be above the top if fuel returned to early-July levels, and planned to recover 80-90% of the fuel increase in Q3 and 100% by Q4. FY EPS was held at $9.00-11.00, and Q4 capacity is expected to fall below published schedules. Q2 was $1.99 adjusted on $17.7B revenue (+16%), premium revenue +16% against economy unit revenue +12%, fuel at $4.19. The Q4 guide, the FY range and capacity cuts are the news; the stock has dropped about 16% over three months and a Delta shortfall on fuel is in the tape. Short interest 5%. Confirmed after the close, call 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Pegasystems ($34.50) — the agents-versus-seats print, at 83% implied vol. Briefing consensus is $0.46 on $421M. Q2 total ACV rose 7% to $1.62B and Pega Cloud ACV 22% to $926M, but management said clients delayed purchases "amid AI market changes," that ACV growth had "significantly slowed" in the first half, and that this could continue. Q2 revenue was $420.7M (+9%), non-GAAP EPS $0.35, and backlog $2.02B (+10%). The Q2 release gave no full-year numbers I could find, and does not mention a GenAI Blueprint. The pitch is "Infinity 26" with agents applied at design time and no per-token run-time cost, which is the counter to seat-based and token-priced AI. The stock is 49% below its $68.10 high, short interest 12%, forward P/E 13. Both sides: cloud ACV compounding at 22% says the platform is selling; total ACV at 7% says AI-driven decision delays are a real cost. Results land after the close, call 8:00 a.m. ET Wednesday; it reads to NOW, MNDY and UiPath, and SAP and IBM report Wednesday.
Intuitive Surgical ($423.00) — Tuesday after the close, tariffs inside the gross margin. Consensus $2.64 on $2.91B, below Q2's $2.80 non-GAAP EPS (which included a $0.08 one-time IEEPA tariff refund) and $2.89B revenue, an unusual setup that may reflect seasonal opex or a stale estimate. Q2 worldwide procedures rose about 16% (da Vinci +15%, Ion +36%), da Vinci placements were 468 including 246 da Vinci 5, and the installed base reached 11,710. 2026 guidance: da Vinci procedure growth 13.5-15.5% (company expecting nearer the midpoint), non-GAAP gross margin 68.0-69.0% including about 1.0 point of tariff impact, and opex growth of 11-13%. The company bought back $0.38B in Q2. The stock is 30% below its $603.88 high at 33x forward earnings, IV 46%. The call is confirmed for 1:30 p.m. PT on Oct 20 per ISRG's IR event page, so Briefing's TBD resolves to after the close.
East West (EWBC), Hancock Whitney (HWC), Bank OZK (OZK) — regional credit. EWBC ($126.88; $2.73 on $811M; call 2 p.m. PT): Q2 EPS $2.63, NIM 3.43% (-6 bp), NCOs 0.19% versus 0.09%, but CRE nonaccruals rose to $89M from $56M and special mention loans to $433M from $316M; no Q2 buyback. HWC ($73.03; $1.66; call 3:30 p.m. CT): Q2 EPS $1.55, NIM 3.56%, NCOs 0.16%, criticized loans down to 2.55% of commercial, 11% short interest, a Florida acquisition closing Aug 1. OZK ($46.12; $1.43 on $434M; call Wednesday 7:30 a.m. CT): short interest of 17% is the highest in this group; I did not retrieve its Q2 release, so the construction/CRE book figures are unverified. The recurring question for all three is whether CRE special-mention migration shows up in provisions.
Alaska Air ($35.14) — a $0-1.00 guide range at the 52-week low. Consensus $0.28 on $4.32B. In July ALK guided Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.00-1.00 on a $3.75 fuel assumption, with RASM up low double digits, CASM ex-fuel up low-to-mid single digits and capacity +2-3% (long-haul international from Seattle). Q2 adjusted loss was $0.92 per share (better than the $1.00 guided) with economic fuel at $4.43. On Hawaiian, the single passenger service system and oneworld entry were completed; no synergy dollar figure or full-year guide appeared in the release. The Q4 guide is the new input. Short interest 12%, IV 55%, 5% above its low. Confirmed after the close, call 11:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Stride (LRN, $82.39) — 27% short interest, 74% implied vol, Q1 fiscal 2027. Consensus $1.29 on $616M. Q4 fiscal 2026 (reported Aug 4) delivered adjusted EPS of $2.12 against $1.64 expected on revenue of $636M, down 2.7% year over year per MarketBeat. I could not retrieve the FY27 guidance, enrollment data or a stock reaction, and I did not locate a short report. The stock sits 47% below its $155.06 high; the enrollment count and updated FY27 outlook are the numbers, and a borrow-heavy name can move on either direction. Call is confirmed for 5:00 p.m. ET.
Oilfield services. Weatherford ($76.19; workbook $1.27 on $1.13B): Q2 revenue was $1,105M (-4% sequentially), adjusted EBITDA $223M (20.2% margin), and diluted EPS $0.55, so the workbook EPS is probably on a different basis than GAAP. Management said the year outlook "slightly reduced" with a significant H2 margin ramp and a gradual Middle East recovery. North America revenue was $205M (-7% sequentially). Company date not confirmed; aggregators say Tuesday after the close. Read from HAL this morning.
REITs. Equity LifeStyle ($61.21): Q2 normalized FFO $0.74, FY guide $3.13-3.23 (midpoint $3.18 versus $3.17 prior), Q3 guide $0.76-0.82; Briefing's $0.50 EPS is not on an FFO basis. Agree Realty ($67.04): Q2 AFFO $1.14 (+7.4%), 2026 AFFO guide raised to $4.57-4.59 from $4.54-4.58, investment volume guide lifted to $1.6-1.8B, 99.8% leased; workbook $0.47 is also not AFFO. Both dates are aggregator-sourced.
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PM | 205.06 | 319.8B | 1.1% | 34.21% | 20.9 | 2.32 | 11.4B | 142.11 | 210.45 |
| TMO | 690.00 | 255.1B | 1.5% | 42.27% | 24.2 | 6.40 | 11.9B | 435.27 | 704.00 |
| ABT | 104.89 | 181.5B | 0.9% | 33.64% | 17.1 | 1.41 | 13.0B | 81.97 | 132.03 |
| NEE | 79.80 | 166.5B | 2.8% | 28.14% | 17.7 | 1.18 | 8.9B | 74.41 | 98.75 |
| DHR | 229.04 | 161.0B | 1.4% | 42.54% | 23.8 | 1.92 | 6.6B | 160.93 | 242.80 |
| T | 23.43 | 160.6B | 1.8% | 31.61% | 9.9 | 0.60 | 31.6B | 19.89 | 29.44 |
| CME | 293.87 | 105.7B | 1.7% | 29.65% | 21.9 | 2.98 | 1.7B | 218.31 | 329.16 |
| ELV | 428.26 | 92.9B | 2.5% | 41.44% | 13.7 | 4.69 | 49.2B | 274.84 | 436.24 |
| MCO | 485.07 | 84.0B | 1.9% | 36.81% | 24.3 | 4.25 | 2.1B | 402.28 | 546.88 |
| WAB | 286.82 | 48.4B | 2.7% | 30.58% | 23.8 | 2.74 | 3.2B | 186.06 | 306.64 |
| NTRS | 165.54 | 30.3B | 2.4% | 33.52% | 13.8 | 2.84 | 2.3B | 121.53 | 195.78 |
| TDY | 618.60 | 28.7B | 2.8% | 35.51% | 23.6 | 6.16 | 1.7B | 483.02 | 697.67 |
| SF | 67.56 | 10.2B | 2.9% | 36.90% | 12.0 | 1.45 | 1.5B | 66.89 | 89.83 |
| ONB | 25.01 | 9.6B | 7.5% | 33.07% | 8.4 | 0.66 | 732M | 19.60 | 27.36 |
| LAD | 295.14 | 6.5B | 13.8% | 48.11% | 7.9 | 9.68 | 9.7B | 239.78 | 439.49 |
| UNF | 263.00 | 4.8B | 10.7% | 45.85% | 19.2 | 2.04 | 634M | 147.66 | 306.67 |
| MHO | 124.48 | 3.1B | 7.3% | 49.66% | 11.9 | 3.30 | 1.1B | 116.78 | 163.66 |
| BKU | 41.94 | 3.0B | 7.3% | 44.01% | 9.8 | 1.03 | 292M | 36.05 | 52.11 |
| WGO | 24.00 | 678M | 11.6% | 67.35% | 11.5 | 0.47 | 660M | 22.76 | 50.16 |
Wednesday morning is the densest pre-market block of the week outside the banks: life-science tools (TMO, DHR), a large-cap med-tech (ABT), the managed-care read (ELV), a regulated-utility-plus-renewables name (NEE), telecom (T), two market-structure/ratings franchises (CME, MCO), rail equipment (WAB), and a run of regionals, dealers and builders. The common test is how much of the second-quarter guidance raises survives a third quarter that opened with the 10-year at 5%+ and the Fed having hiked in September. Tools and med-tech are being asked whether the Q2 recovery in pharma/biotech demand is durable; ELV is being asked whether the Medicaid "trough" call holds; CME and MCO are rate-vol and issuance beneficiaries whose prints show what the rate backdrop did to volume.
Last week's tape sets the tone: Nasdaq -4.48%, S&P -1.95%, higher yields and AI-financing worries. Defensives and rate-sensitive financials are the part of this slate with no direct AI-capex exposure, but NEE is the cleanest read on the power/grid bottleneck thread. Implied vols below are annualized; as a rough guide, 30% IV is about a 1.9% one-day one-sigma move and 42% about 2.7% (a conversion of the workbook IV, not an earnings-straddle quote).
PM belongs on this page too: Philip Morris's own webcast release puts its Q3 print Wednesday, not Tuesday (see Tier 1 and the flags). MKTX is covered below the line as a merger-pinned name with no confirmed print date.
TMO ($690.00) — tools recovery priced near the 52-week high of $704. Briefing consensus is $6.40 EPS on $11.93B revenue; IV 42%. In Q2 the company printed $6.03 adjusted EPS (+13%, $0.30 above its own guide) on $11.99B revenue, 5% organic, and raised FY26 to $24.93-$25.33 adjusted EPS (midpoint +$0.25) and $47.4-$48.1B revenue, organic about 4%, FCF $6.9-$7.4B. Management said the better second half is mainly pharma and biotech (roughly 60% of revenue); U.S. academic and government returned to low-single-digit growth but was explicitly not called a sustained trend, and China (about 7.5% of revenue) returned to low-single-digit growth with demand still described as muted. Tariffs and FX took about 30 bp off the Q2 operating-margin expansion, which was +80 bp overall. The one metric: organic growth against the roughly 4% full-year guide, with orders running ahead of revenue per the Q2 call; also a microbiology divestiture expected to close in Q3 (about -$200M revenue, -$0.05 EPS annualized) and Clario/Solventum filtration integration. With the stock near the top of its range, a clean beat is the baseline; the other side is that any slippage in the pharma-services second-half ramp or the academic recovery sits against a 24x forward multiple.
DHR ($229.04) — bioprocessing orders versus bioprocessing revenue. Consensus $1.92 EPS on $6.56B; IV 43%; 52-week high $242.80. Q2 adjusted EPS was $1.94 (+8%) on $6.3B revenue, core +3.0% (+4.5% excluding respiratory); the FY26 adjusted EPS guide was raised to $8.45-$8.60 from $8.35-$8.55, core revenue growth 3-4% unchanged, and Q3 core growth was guided to 2-3%. Revenue in bioprocessing was held back by customer project timing while orders grew mid-teens, which makes Q3 the first quarter that test converts. Life Sciences core +5.5% was its strongest in several years; Diagnostics +2.0% (+5.0% ex-respiratory). The Masimo deal closed earlier than planned and contributes in Q3, so reported revenue growth will outrun core. The release was silent on China and tariffs, so both are call questions. The bull case is order conversion; the bear case is that the guide embeds a 2-3% Q3 core number the stock has already looked through, and respiratory comps remain a drag.
ABT ($104.89) — Libre and the diagnostics mix after an 11% July gap. Consensus $1.41 EPS on $12.99B (reported basis, Exact Sciences now consolidated); Q3 EPS guide $1.38-$1.46; IV 34%. Q2 adjusted EPS $1.31 (consensus about $1.28) on comparable sales +4.8%, and FY EPS was raised to $5.45-$5.60 from $5.38-$5.58 with comparable growth held at 6.5%-7.5%. The stock rose roughly 11% to about $99 on July 16 after the Exact Sciences margin worry proved overblown; it remains well below its 52-week high of $132.03. Diabetes Care +9.0% comparable (CGM +9.5%, above $2B for the quarter); Medical Devices +8.4% with EP +13.4%; Diagnostics only +2.9% comparable, with Rapid/Molecular -8.0% and Core Lab +3.2%; Nutrition -3.6%. The one metric is comparable growth stepping from 4.8% toward the 6.5%-7.5% full-year band; the H2 arithmetic needs it to accelerate. Libre acceleration is tied to U.S. Type 2 non-insulin reimbursement, EP to Volt 2.0 and TactiFlex Duo, and Exact's cancer diagnostics to mid-teens growth. Nutrition and Rapid Diagnostics remain the places a miss would come from; a Q3 EPS inside a $0.08-wide guide leaves little room to surprise on EPS alone.
ELV ($428.26) — near its 52-week high of $436 into a medical-cost print. Consensus $4.69 EPS (Zacks $4.66) on $49.16B; IV 41%. Management said Q3 adjusted EPS should be about 17% of the full-year figure; on the "at least $27.00" guide that is about $4.59, so consensus sits modestly above the company's own seasonality. The guide has moved from at least $25.50 (initial) to $26.75 (April) to $27.00 (July), against $30.29 earned in 2025. Q2 adjusted EPS was $7.45 versus a $6.21 consensus, but included about $0.80 of below-the-line benefit, mostly investment valuation; the benefit expense ratio was 89.7% (+80 bp) on elevated Government-business cost trend. Management reiterated 2026 as the Medicaid margin trough (about -1.75% operating margin; cost pressure in behavioral health, specialty pharmacy, outpatient surgery and ED), MA margin at or above 2%, and at least 1 million ACA members at year-end (1.32M at June 30, down 7.5% from March). Medicaid membership was 8.36M (-4.3% y/y), days in claims payable 45.4. A 2027 baseline of at least $26.00 with 12%+ growth was floated. The read-through: MOH reports Wednesday night with the same Medicaid and ACA exposure, so ELV's Medicaid ratio and DCP trend set the frame for the group. The bull case is a Medicaid ratio improving sequentially as rate updates arrive; the bear case is that the stock is pricing that improvement and the DCP decline from March is read as reserve release.
NEE ($79.80) — the power-demand thread with a merger overlay. Consensus $1.18 EPS (Q2 was $1.15 adjusted) on $8.88B; IV 28%; the stock is in the lower third of its range ($74.41-$98.75). FY26 adjusted EPS guide $3.92-$4.02, with management targeting the high end, and at least 8% annual growth through 2032. Energy Resources added 3.6 GW in Q2 (2 GW of storage) for a backlog of about 35.1 GW; FPL raised its 2032 large-load forecast to 8 GW from 6 GW and is in advanced talks on 12 GW of about 21 GW of interest, with 30 data-center hub sites pursued (40 targeted by year-end). The company has also agreed to combine with Dominion (regulatory filings made, shareholder meetings were slated for early September, close targeted second half 2027, $2.25B in customer bill credits); I could not confirm the vote outcomes. The one metric: backlog additions and any firming of large-load contracts. Not confirmed from the sources I could reach: the status of the FPL rate case, which the Q2 coverage did not discuss. Both sides: the demand story is intact and the guide is held at the high end; the stock is trading as a 17.7x name with merger execution and rate-case risk attached.
T ($23.43) — fiber plus convergence, buyback pace and a leverage step-up. Consensus $0.60 EPS on $31.65B; IV 32%. Q2: adjusted EPS $0.65, revenue $31.6B (+2.3%), postpaid phone net adds 432K at 0.86% churn, fiber net adds 367K and fixed wireless 279K, FCF $4.7B versus a $4.0-4.5B guide. The 2026 guide was reiterated (adjusted EPS $2.25-$2.35, EBITDA +3-4%, FCF above $18B) while the buyback was raised to about $10B from $8B. The Lumen Mass Markets fiber deal closed February 2; AT&T plans about 8 million new fiber locations this year and noted fiber ARPU down 1.3% on the Lumen mix. Closing the EchoStar spectrum purchase lifts leverage to about 3.2x from 2.68x, targeted back near 2.5x in about three years. Watch the postpaid phone adds against Q2's 432K, fiber ARPU, and whether FCF again outruns the guide. The workbook EPS of $0.60 sits well below the Q2 run rate of $0.65, so the comparison is partly a seasonal one; note consensus differences by source.
CME ($293.87) — record volume quarter against a flat-looking EPS estimate. Consensus $2.98 EPS on $1.71B; IV 30%. CME already published Q3 volume: record ADV of 29.4M contracts (+16% y/y), interest-rate ADV 15.1M (+13%), September a record 31.8M. Q2 was $2.99 adjusted EPS on $1.706B revenue with ADV 29.8M and interest-rate ADV 14.5M (down from 18.7M in Q1). With Q3 total ADV below Q2's 29.8M, the volume support is already known; what remains is the rate per contract (Q2 $0.678 overall), market-data revenue (+20% to a record $238M in Q2) and expenses (adjusted +6%). The rate-vol tailwind with the 10-year at 5%+ is in the volume number; the open question is mix, since interest-rate RPC was only $0.480 in Q2. Time of release not confirmed against CME IR.
MCO ($485.07) — issuance surge versus a narrowed guide. Consensus $4.25 EPS on $2.08B; IV 37%. Q2 adjusted EPS $4.68 (+31%) on $2,185M revenue (+15%); MIS revenue +25% with rated issuance +33% (investment grade +17%, high yield +23%, leveraged loans +53%, structured +43%), helped by data-center and tech infrastructure financing. FY adjusted EPS guide was narrowed to $16.50-$17.00 from $16.40-$17.00, operating margin trimmed to 44%-45%, operating cash flow and FCF lowered by about $100M, buyback raised to up to $3.0B, and the full-year issuance assumption raised to mid-single-digit growth. Q3 issuance data (September and the late-quarter window) is the swing: a high base from Q2 against the 5%+ 10-year. Analytics (ARR $3.7B, +9%) is the other leg. The bull case is continued AI-related debt financing; the bear case is that a lowered cash-flow guide and trimmed margin alongside a raised buyback leaves less margin for a soft Q3 issuance read. Release before the open, call 9:00 ET.
WAB ($286.82) — backlog is long-dated; Q3 tests conversion. Consensus $2.74 EPS on $3.20B; IV 31%; near its 52-week high of $306.64. Q2 adjusted EPS $2.76 on $3.18B revenue (+17.5%); total backlog $30.93B (+41.7%), 12-month backlog $9.14B (+11.3%), multiyear freight backlog $25.33B (+47.8%). FY26 guide raised to $12.30-$12.60B revenue and $10.60-$10.90 adjusted EPS (midpoint +$0.30). Equipment sales +35% on locomotive deliveries; services -4.2% on fewer modernizations; tariffs were a margin headwind expected to moderate in H2, with most margin expansion arriving in Q4. Management flagged "more than a couple" of significant deals possible in H2 and a roughly 25,000-car 2026 North American railcar build (-21%). The read-through is to rails: carload health supports UNP and NSC on Thursday; a weak component line points to car builders, not railroads. The tension is a backlog that has expanded faster than near-term conversion, with growth guided to slow in H2 as acquisitions lap. Call 8:30 ET.
LAD ($295.14) — new-vehicle gross profit per unit is the line. Consensus $9.68 EPS on $9.71B; IV 48%; short interest 14% of float; the stock is far below its $439 high. Q2 adjusted EPS $10.03 (+9%) on $9.8B revenue; new GPU $2,728 (-11.8%), used retail GPU $2,014 (+5.4%, +20% sequentially), F&I per unit $1,808 (-0.6%), and a record Driveway Finance contribution ($37M, +82%). SG&A as a share of gross profit was 68.6%, 290 bp better sequentially. There is no formal guide; tariffs sit in risk factors only. New-vehicle GPU compression and the used-car recovery are the two ends of the print; the read-through is to GM on Tuesday, where the incentive and pricing mix feeds the same dealer margin. Release before the open, call 10:00 ET.
MHO ($124.48) — gross margin level, not order pace. Consensus $3.30 EPS on $1.11B; IV 50%; near the bottom of its range ($116.78-$163.66). Q2 adjusted EPS $3.14 (reported $3.02 after a $4.2M inventory charge) on $1.06B revenue; gross margin about 22% against 24.7% a year earlier; new contracts a Q2-record 2,387 (+15%) while backlog fell 6% to 2,426 homes at a $538K average price. The company gives no numeric guide and 234 communities were flat y/y; buybacks ran about $50M a quarter. Order growth at a lower margin is the trade-off the print has to resolve: incentives are what bought the contracts, and mortgage rates remain elevated. Read-through to PHM and NVR on Thursday. Time of release not confirmed.
PM ($205.06) — see the date flag; near the 52-week high of $210.45. Briefing has PM on Tuesday a.m. at $2.32 EPS on $11.37B; PM's own webcast announcement says the third-quarter and nine-month results arrive about 7:00 ET Wednesday, October 21, webcast 9:00 ET. Q2 adjusted EPS $2.20 (+15.2%) on $11.2B revenue; FY26 guide $8.26-$8.41 (only currency changed); Q3 guide $2.20-$2.25 including an 8-cent currency headwind, which leaves the $2.32 workbook consensus above the company's own range (flag). U.S. ZYN shipments grew 1.8% to 2.9B pouches and the FDA granted MRTP authorization to 20 variants June 30; IQOS shipments +7.6% with Japan and Poland called transient headwinds. IV 34%. The tension is a consensus above guide against a stock priced at the top of its range.
Regionals and trust banks. NTRS (consensus $2.84, revenue $2.26B): Q2 EPS was $4.23 reported, +40% ex notable items (a $525M Visa Class B gain offset by repositioning, software and severance charges); full-year NII now guided +9-10% and revenue +9-10%; NIM 1.81%; trust fees +10%. SF ($1.45, $1.45B): Q2 non-GAAP $1.42, investment banking +42% to $332M, Global Wealth NII $274.6M; the stock sits at its 52-week low of $66.89. ONB ($0.66, $732M): Q2 $0.65, NIM 3.54%, deposit cost 171 bp, NII guide trimmed to about $2.40B and fee income raised to $515-$525M. BKU ($1.03, $292M): Q2 $0.97, NIM 3.06% (+7 bp), non-interest-bearing deposits a record 34.4% of the total, deposit cost 2.05%.
Industrial and services. TDY ($6.16, $1.65B): Q2 non-GAAP $6.28, Q3 guide $6.05-$6.15 (consensus sits above the top of it), FY raised to $24.45-$24.65 from $23.85-$24.15, Digital Imaging +12.7%. UNF ($2.04, $634M): a pending Cintas deal at $155 cash plus 0.7720 CTAS shares per share, FTC Second Request received, close expected second half of calendar 2026; no guidance, no call. WGO ($0.47, $660M): fiscal Q4 and first FY27 commentary; FY26 adjusted EPS guide was cut to $1.65-$2.00 from $2.10-$2.80, revenue $2.65-$2.75B, towables -26% in FQ3, 12% short interest, IV 67%.
MKTX ($164.64, consensus $1.95 on $219M). Not an earnings trade. ICE agreed July 30 to buy MarketAxess for $167 cash (about $5.7B); at $164.64 the spread is about 1.4%, consistent with the 8.6% IV. MarketAxess withdrew guidance and medium-term targets, cancelled the August 7 call and suspended monthly volume releases; Q2 revenue was $218.4M and EPS $1.95 ex notables, ADV $43.1B (-12%) with portfolio trading a record. Whether MKTX reports Wednesday is unconfirmed (see flags).
ELV sets the frame for MOH tonight and the managed-care group. GM's Tuesday print sets the new-vehicle pricing and incentive frame that LAD's new-vehicle GPU then tests at the dealer level. MHO leads PHM and NVR on Thursday. WAB leads UNP and NSC on Thursday. NEE's large-load and backlog numbers inform the power/grid names later in the week (PCG, KMI, BE, FIX, VICR). TMO and DHR together define the pharma-capex read for life-science tools. MCO's issuance commentary feeds the credit-sensitive names (COF, SYF, ALLY) already reporting this week and the AI-financing debate. CME's rate-ADV mix informs NDAQ on Thursday.
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | 705.32 | 1.81T | 1.5% | 47.37% | 22.1 | 5.70 | 63.4B | 520.26 | 779.82 |
| TSLA | 352.46 | 1.40T | 2.0% | 52.80% | 158.7 | 0.45 | 28.1B | 297.38 | 498.83 |
| LRCX | 265.50 | 330.3B | 2.1% | 62.69% | 33.7 | 2.18 | 8.1B | 135.50 | 438.50 |
| SAP | 222.00 | 258.9B | 0.3% | 45.54% | 33.1 | 2.09 | 10.1B | 144.97 | 281.37 |
| TXN | 276.49 | 252.5B | 2.5% | 52.02% | 27.5 | 2.42 | 5.9B | 152.73 | 334.03 |
| IBM | 231.20 | 218.7B | 2.8% | 47.19% | 17.4 | 2.87 | 16.8B | 199.19 | 332.46 |
| CSX | 48.65 | 90.2B | 2.3% | 27.57% | 21.2 | 0.53 | 4.0B | 33.63 | 53.60 |
| KMI | 33.73 | 76.2B | 2.4% | 29.19% | 20.0 | 0.33 | 4.4B | 25.60 | 34.81 |
| URI | 1029.64 | 64.1B | 2.6% | 50.78% | 18.5 | 14.03 | 4.7B | 701.59 | 1179.18 |
| CCI | 82.25 | 35.9B | 2.7% | 37.36% | 21.2 | 0.68 | 1.0B | 65.32 | 100.50 |
| LVS | 38.01 | 24.6B | 14.4% | 44.49% | 11.2 | 0.72 | 3.4B | 35.28 | 70.45 |
| PKG | 236.00 | 21.0B | 3.9% | 35.72% | 18.7 | 2.92 | 2.6B | 191.50 | 259.98 |
| RS | 411.17 | 21.0B | 3.4% | 33.00% | 16.4 | 6.83 | 4.7B | 260.31 | 433.02 |
| LUV | 39.50 | 19.3B | 6.6% | 47.02% | 8.3 | 0.57 | 8.2B | 29.26 | 55.11 |
| MEDP | 618.47 | 17.3B | 7.1% | 66.18% | 31.9 | 4.46 | 714M | 373.00 | 677.90 |
| ROL | 33.16 | 16.1B | 9.3% | 45.14% | 25.9 | 0.35 | 1.1B | 29.29 | 66.14 |
| PNFP | 94.72 | 14.3B | 4.2% | 32.69% | 8.2 | 2.62 | 1.3B | 81.08 | 110.33 |
| GGG | 81.99 | 13.3B | 3.9% | 28.74% | 22.1 | 0.84 | 591M | 72.51 | 95.69 |
| GL | 168.77 | 13.0B | 3.2% | 25.50% | 10.2 | 4.89 | 1.6B | 127.85 | 191.55 |
| SEIC | 104.40 | 12.5B | 2.7% | 26.92% | 16.2 | 1.58 | 655M | 75.08 | 112.15 |
| MOH | 207.36 | 10.8B | 6.4% | 63.09% | 18.9 | 0.79 | 10.9B | 121.06 | 244.89 |
| EGP | 196.37 | 10.6B | 10.7% | 18.04% | 35.3 | 1.34 | 198M | 172.17 | 226.71 |
| KNX | 64.81 | 10.5B | 9.3% | 50.24% | 15.6 | 0.76 | 2.2B | 41.24 | 82.86 |
| SSB | 102.06 | 9.9B | 3.6% | 22.16% | 10.3 | 2.40 | 691M | 84.48 | 112.20 |
| ESI | 35.05 | 8.5B | 4.3% | 47.26% | 17.0 | 0.47 | 961M | 22.86 | 49.25 |
| FR | 58.76 | 8.1B | 5.5% | 24.70% | 36.8 | 0.45 | 196M | 54.23 | 69.88 |
| HXL | 90.22 | 6.8B | 7.2% | 46.90% | 20.3 | 0.50 | 502M | 61.81 | 111.74 |
| FAF | 64.92 | 6.6B | 7.1% | 48.32% | 9.4 | 1.85 | 2.1B | 56.20 | 79.87 |
| EPRT | 26.09 | 5.7B | 9.0% | 25.25% | 22.8 | 0.34 | 169M | 24.62 | 34.73 |
| WH | 75.60 | 5.6B | 11.8% | 39.07% | 12.7 | 1.31 | 408M | 66.87 | 90.35 |
| SON | 49.79 | 4.9B | 14.4% | 43.08% | 7.9 | 1.83 | 2.1B | 38.65 | 60.67 |
| OII | 43.79 | 4.4B | 9.7% | 60.15% | 18.8 | 0.59 | 773M | 22.13 | 54.25 |
| FULT | 22.40 | 4.3B | 6.5% | 27.14% | 10.2 | 0.55 | 367M | 16.91 | 25.23 |
| CATY | 59.96 | 4.0B | 7.6% | 36.99% | 10.1 | 1.45 | 227M | 44.57 | 65.26 |
| TCBI | 91.15 | 4.0B | 14.1% | 32.96% | 11.1 | 1.95 | 340M | 79.19 | 108.92 |
| SLG | 47.00 | 3.6B | 25.6% | 46.47% | -61.8 | -3.82 | 178M | 34.77 | 60.09 |
| LBRT | 16.60 | 2.7B | 14.9% | 77.15% | 29.5 | 0.07 | 1.2B | 14.76 | 34.48 |
| WDFC | 200.09 | 2.7B | 5.7% | 46.13% | 30.9 | 1.13 | 172M | 175.38 | 298.90 |
| QS | 4.01 | 2.5B | 21.8% | 113.70% | -6.0 | -0.17 | – | 3.80 | 18.56 |
| KALU | 147.25 | 2.4B | 7.1% | 55.51% | 27.7 | 2.37 | 1.2B | 77.24 | 199.89 |
| GTY | 28.38 | 1.8B | 8.6% | 52.06% | 18.6 | 0.35 | 60M | 26.91 | 36.83 |
| STC | 52.54 | 1.6B | 4.4% | 42.34% | 7.6 | 1.55 | 918M | 48.74 | 78.61 |
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKTX | 164.64 | 5.8B | 11.8% | 8.58% | 18.6 | 1.95 | 219M | 108.75 | 195.97 |
| MRTN | 12.84 | 1.0B | 8.7% | 51.80% | 21.4 | 0.06 | 230M | 9.35 | 18.48 |
Wednesday after the close is the heaviest session of the week: 42 names plus two unconfirmed, and five of the six largest are the ones that carry the AI-capex argument from different ends. META and TSLA are the spenders (2026 capex guided $130–145B and above $25B respectively), LRCX and TXN are the equipment and component suppliers, IBM and SAP are the software side of the agents-versus-seats question. The sequence on the clock is SAP first (about 4:05 PM ET, a foreign filer), then META and TXN around 4:30 ET, TSLA 5:30 ET, LRCX and IBM 5:00 ET, so the reads cross-contaminate inside a single hour.
The tape going in is fragile. The Nasdaq Composite fell 4.48% last week, its worst since June, with semis and hardware leading and CoreWeave's roughly $50B debt load putting build-out financing in the headlines. The 10-year has been around 5.0–5.3% after a September Fed hike. The setup is that Q3 S&P earnings growth is tracking above 30% year over year, so the question is not whether numbers are good but whether guides and spending plans justify multiples when long yields are this high. Several of these names are already well off highs (LRCX −39%, IBM −30%, TXN −17%, META −10%), which means the stock is carrying some of the bad news before the print.
META ($705) — the capex framing matters more than the quarter. Reports after the close, call 4:30 PM ET (company release). Briefing consensus is $5.70 EPS on $63.39B revenue; other feeds show $5.94–$6.35 on EPS, so the workbook figure sits at the low end and a "beat" or "miss" will depend on which number is used. The company guided Q3 revenue to $61–64B in July, with about a 1% FX headwind, so $63.39B sits in the upper part of the range. Q2 was $60.8B (+28%) against a $58–61B guide, but diluted EPS of $6.18 fell 13% and missed, because total expenses rose 55% to about $42B including $2.4B of legal charges and $1.18B of severance. The 2026 expense guide is $165–169B and 2026 capex is $130–145B, the low end raised from $125B; Q2 capex alone was $31.1B and free cash flow was $784M, down 91%, with debt at $83.7B against $90.3B of cash. The July release gave no 2027 number, so the live question for the peak-capex debate is whether the Q4 and 2027 framing is a plateau or another step up. Management said capacity planning is set for 2026 and 2027 with 2028 server decisions kept flexible, which is the wording to compare. Reality Labs lost $4.6B in Q2 on $431M of revenue (+16%, glasses offsetting weaker Quest). On monetization, Muse Spark 1.1 launched July 9 as a closed model with a paid API priced at roughly a quarter of rivals, and Zuckerberg said Meta has received offers for compute at a premium; no revenue has been disclosed, so any first number is new information. Ads were 97.6% of revenue, with impressions up 14% and price per ad up 12% in Q2. The stock is $705 against a $520–780 range, after reports of the $540s following the July print and a −3.7% Friday. IV is 47%; the only earnings-specific options read found was about 8% for the July week, so treat a high-single-digit move as the reference. Bull framing: ad growth above 25% still funds the spend and third-party compute sales add a second revenue line. Bear framing: another expense or capex raise with free cash flow near zero and rising debt.
TSLA ($352) — margin quality and the credit cliff, not deliveries. Results after the close, webcast 4:30 PM CT / 5:30 PM ET. Deliveries are already out: 486,532 (versus 480,126 in Q2), production 464,391, so inventory built by about 22K units, and storage deployments were 13.7 GWh (13.5 in Q2). The EPS consensus problem is large: the workbook shows $0.45 on $28.11B revenue, Nasdaq's feed $0.21, and one preview service $0.26 on $27.57B with 17.7% gross margin. Any headline comparison is meaningless until the source is named. In Q2, automotive gross margin ex-credits fell to 16.3% from 19.2% as a Q1 warranty true-down and tariff relief did not repeat; energy gross margin dropped to 20.4% from 39.5%; free cash flow was negative with capex more than doubling sequentially. Capex is guided above $25B for 2026 and rising in the second half, and Tesla was arranging up to $30B of debt capacity. Regulatory credit revenue has fallen by more than half from the $439M of Q2 2025, so the ex-credit margin is the number that shows whether volume was bought with price. Robotaxi runs in seven US markets with over 380,000 unsupervised miles disclosed; FSD paid users were about 1.5M. Optimus has a Fremont line being installed but no volume or date. Forward P/E is 159 and IV 53%, so the stock is priced on autonomy and robotics timelines while the P&L is an auto and energy business with falling credits. Watch: ex-credit auto margin versus 16.3%, the H2 capex run rate, energy margin recovery, and any dated Cybercab or Optimus milestone.
LRCX ($265.50) — the memory-cycle read. Call 2:00 PM PT / 5:00 PM ET. Consensus is $2.18 EPS on $8.13B, against its own September guide of $8.1B ±$0.4B and $2.15 ±$0.15, so the Street is slightly above midpoint. Q2 (June) revenue was $6.72B, +30% year over year, EPS $1.82. The company raised its 2026 WFE view to the low-$150B range from $140B. The mix shifted: NAND rose to 23% of systems revenue from 12% (conversions to 256-layer-plus for enterprise SSD), DRAM held at 23%, foundry fell to 44% from 54% as Chinese mature-node spend eased. Management called DRAM the fastest-growing WFE segment into 2027. For the Micron-barometer thread, this is the supply side of the same story: tight memory pricing funds capex, and LRCX is where it shows up first. The drawdown from $438.50 is 39% and IV is 63%, so the stock prices either a peak-cycle view or financing and rate pressure on the group. The December-quarter guide and any first 2027 WFE number decide which. China mix and any export-rule commentary are the other swing.
TXN ($276.49) — recovery breadth and the Q4 guide. Call 3:30 PM CT. Consensus $2.42 on $5.91B, inside the $2.23–2.57 and $5.65–6.15B guide given in July, which management called "above seasonal." Q2 was $5.46B and $2.14 against $5.26B and $1.91 expected. By end market in Q2: industrial about +30% year over year, automotive up mid-teens (China and EV/hybrid led), data center roughly doubled, personal electronics flat with memory constraints cited. Price increases starting in analog are a new variable for margin. Capex is $2–3B tracking the low end and trailing free cash flow was $6.5B, so the capex-depreciation story has turned into a cash-harvest story. Two consecutive above-seasonal quarters mean the Q4 guide is the test: restocking or double-ordering would show up as a number that fades into Q1. Stock is $276 against $334 high; IV 52%. I could not verify fab depreciation figures.
IBM ($231.20) — software growth versus the agents-and-seats debate. Call 5:00 PM ET. Consensus $2.87 on $16.84B. In Q2, operating EPS was $2.93 (in line) on $17.16B (+1%, marginally light); full-year constant-currency growth was cut to 4–5% from above 5%, free cash flow still targeted up about $1B, and Krishna said execution "broke down in the closing weeks of June" as clients shifted spend toward servers, storage and memory, with roughly a third of slipped large deals closing in the first three weeks of Q3. Software grew 5% but organic growth was flat; Red Hat +11%, data +18%, automation +3%, transaction processing −9%; ARR $24.6B. Infrastructure fell 7% with IBM Z down 42%, while distributed infrastructure rose 37% with about $500M of backlog. Consulting figures were not found. For Carl's thread, flat organic software at a company selling watsonx is a direct data point against the seat-model-resilience case, set against SAP's backlog the same evening. The stock is 30% under its high; fwd P/E 17.
SAP ($222 ADR) — foreign filer, cloud backlog as the metric. Reports about 22:05 CEST (4:05 PM ET), analyst call 23:00 CEST; files a 6-K, which the EDGAR 8-K watcher will not catch. Q2 current cloud backlog was EUR 22.9B, +26% constant currency (+27% reported); cloud revenue EUR 6.28B (+24% cc). 2026 guide: cloud revenue EUR 25.8–26.2B, cloud and software EUR 36.3–36.8B, non-IFRS operating profit lowered to EUR 11.8–12.2B on more than EUR 100M of acquisition dilution, free cash flow about EUR 10B, and CCB growth to decelerate slightly from 2025's 25%. One preview cites UBS expecting a noticeable CCB slowdown; the stock rallied roughly 50% from a July low (EUR 127.50 to about EUR 191 on Oct 9), so the bar moved up. Management says AI was a factor in over 90% of its 50 largest deals, with about 400 autonomous agents targeted by year-end. Buyback of up to EUR 10B runs through 2027. The workbook revenue and EPS are in dollars; do not compare them to euro statements.
CSX ($48.65). Consensus $0.53 on $3.96B. Q2 revenue $3.94B (+10%), EPS $0.54, volume +6% with intermodal +9%, operating margin 38.3% (about a 61.7 ratio). The company gave no numeric guide. On the merger: the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern application is in STB merits review; notices of intent were due Sept. 30, opposition filings are due Nov. 18, and final briefs are due May 28, 2027, with a decision after that, so Thursday's UNP and NSC prints will not resolve it. Stock sits near its $53.60 high.
KMI ($33.73), URI ($1,029.64), MOH ($207.36). KMI consensus $0.33 on $4.39B; the power and data-center gas demand and project backlog are the metrics, and at $33.73 against a $34.81 high it is priced for steady delivery. URI consensus $14.03 on $4.71B, IV 51%; rental rate, fleet productivity and the full-year guide against a $1,179 high matter, and the data-center and specialty-rental angles are part of the power thread. MOH consensus $0.79 on $10.86B with IV 63% and 6% short, read alongside ELV that morning: medical cost trend and the FY EPS guide after earlier cuts, with Medicaid acuity as the swing. I did not verify their Q2 guidance figures.
LVS, LUV, KNX, MEDP, QS, CCI. LVS ($38.01; 14% short; consensus $0.72): Macau gross gaming revenue share and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. LUV ($39.50; consensus $0.57 on $8.24B): the Q4 RASM guide after the seating and fare changes. KNX ($64.81; 9% short; consensus $0.76): Marten's July comment that the freight market has "sharply tightened" on driver-licensing enforcement and a broker-liability ruling is the supporting data for a truckload pricing inflection; KNX tests it first. MEDP ($618; consensus $4.46, IV 66%): net new business and backlog burn near a $678 high. QS ($4.01; 22% short; IV 114%; consensus −$0.17, no revenue consensus): Cobra line and PowerCo milestones decide it; a binary on a $2.5B cap. CCI ($82.25; consensus $0.68): tower leasing and the fiber-sale status.
Materials and packaging: RS ($411; $6.83 on $4.74B; near $433 high), PKG ($236; $2.92 on $2.62B), SON ($49.79; $1.83; 14% short), KALU ($147; $2.37 on $1.21B; IV 56%) and ESI ($35.05; $0.47 on $961M) are the pricing-and-volume read on metals and packaging; ESI's electronic materials exposure ties it to AI substrates. GGG ($81.99; $0.84), HXL ($90.22; $0.50) and WDFC ($200; $1.13) round out industrial and specialty.
Banks and financials: PNFP $2.62, SSB $2.40, FULT $0.55, CATY $1.45, TCBI $1.95 (14% short), STC $1.55 on $918M, FAF $1.85 on $2.11B, GL $4.89, SEIC $1.58. After last week's mostly fine bank credit tape, deposit costs, net interest margin guides and criticized-loan trends are the cues.
REITs: SLG (consensus −$3.82 per workbook; 26% short; office), EGP $1.34 (industrial, 11% short), FR $0.45, EPRT $0.34, GTY $0.35 (net lease, 9% short). The workbook SLG figure looks like a GAAP loss, check against FFO.
Consumer and services: ROL $0.35 on $1.11B, WH $1.31 (12% short), MOH covered above.
Energy: OII $0.59 (IV 60%), LBRT $0.07 on $1.20B (IV 77%; 15% short).
SAP (4:05 PM ET) lands before everyone else and sets the agents-versus-seats tone for IBM at 5:00 and for ServiceNow next week (Oct 28). META and TSLA capex numbers feed LRCX and TXN reads in the same hour, and then WDC (Thursday) and NBIS and FIX (TBD Thursday). KNX and MRTN feed freight for Thursday's UNP, NSC and UAL/AAL. KMI and URI inform the power and data-center build-out read ahead of PCG and BE Thursday. MOH after ELV that morning completes the managed-care cost trend. LUV leads into AAL Thursday.
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 159.35 | 370.1B | 1.1% | 24.07% | 21.2 | 1.89 | 22.8B | 137.62 | 167.25 |
| UNP | 289.04 | 171.7B | 5.2% | 28.39% | 19.3 | 3.47 | 7.1B | 215.53 | 315.99 |
| VLO | 444.71 | 128.0B | 3.6% | 56.37% | 10.2 | 20.95 | 42.4B | 156.26 | 461.52 |
| BX | 106.49 | 127.4B | 3.0% | 46.56% | 15.9 | 1.28 | 3.3B | 101.73 | 165.14 |
| LMT | 551.99 | 127.4B | 1.4% | 33.29% | 16.2 | 7.52 | 20.5B | 437.25 | 692.00 |
| SPOT | 527.00 | 109.1B | 2.7% | 54.57% | 28.6 | 2.85 | 5.0B | 405.00 | 696.95 |
| CMCSA | 21.91 | 77.7B | 2.2% | 42.13% | 5.9 | 0.99 | 29.2B | 20.48 | 32.86 |
| NSC | 326.92 | 73.4B | 3.2% | 27.34% | 22.3 | 3.47 | 3.5B | 277.80 | 358.60 |
| HON | 211.01 | 67.0B | 2.5% | 34.34% | 22.2 | 2.16 | 5.0B | 195.87 | 260.28 |
| NDAQ | 93.97 | 52.5B | 2.0% | 32.43% | 23.6 | 1.02 | 1.5B | 76.55 | 101.79 |
| NOK | 9.14 | 51.2B | 1.6% | 66.33% | 24.4 | 0.07 | 5.1B | 5.45 | 17.45 |
| PCG | 13.08 | 39.3B | 1.7% | 64.76% | 6.9 | 0.42 | 6.8B | 11.77 | 19.16 |
| CBRE | 133.08 | 38.5B | 1.6% | 44.35% | 14.9 | 1.96 | 11.9B | 121.69 | 174.27 |
| ROP | 382.71 | 37.9B | 5.3% | 39.75% | 15.0 | 5.79 | 2.2B | 305.96 | 519.10 |
| HBAN | 15.30 | 30.9B | 2.7% | 30.21% | 8.6 | 0.38 | 2.8B | 14.82 | 19.46 |
| DOV | 195.80 | 26.4B | 4.2% | 31.68% | 16.9 | 2.85 | 2.2B | 166.93 | 237.54 |
| DGX | 235.00 | 25.9B | 3.1% | 34.15% | 19.5 | 2.87 | 3.0B | 171.18 | 248.84 |
| PHM | 113.55 | 21.6B | 5.7% | 41.93% | 11.2 | 2.62 | 4.2B | 107.16 | 144.50 |
| DOW | 29.95 | 21.6B | 5.3% | 46.36% | 14.1 | 0.63 | 11.2B | 20.93 | 42.74 |
| SNA | 367.25 | 19.0B | 8.3% | 28.80% | 17.3 | 4.93 | 1.2B | 320.80 | 423.02 |
| CRS | 377.09 | 18.7B | 3.0% | 57.33% | 23.7 | 3.03 | 831M | 239.61 | 625.99 |
| TSCO | 33.16 | 17.3B | 9.5% | 53.86% | 14.5 | 0.41 | 3.8B | 28.36 | 58.21 |
| NVR | 5919.82 | 15.9B | 8.2% | – | 14.8 | 102.77 | 2.5B | 5501.01 | 8200.00 |
| ALLE | 156.54 | 13.3B | 3.1% | 36.12% | 15.9 | 2.50 | 1.1B | 125.00 | 183.11 |
| BPOP | 158.89 | 10.1B | 3.7% | 34.25% | 9.7 | 3.88 | 871M | 108.74 | 179.24 |
| TTMI | 93.88 | 9.9B | 5.5% | 98.91% | 11.9 | 1.26 | 1.1B | 54.43 | 223.83 |
| ORI | 39.66 | 9.6B | 6.2% | 30.75% | 12.1 | 0.79 | 2.5B | 36.65 | 46.76 |
| R | 238.39 | 9.1B | 3.3% | 39.05% | 13.5 | 4.15 | 3.4B | 157.67 | 284.25 |
| AAL | 11.88 | 7.9B | 11.9% | 52.57% | 5.3 | -0.33 | 16.2B | 10.09 | 18.79 |
| VLY | 12.66 | 7.0B | 14.5% | 37.82% | 8.4 | 0.33 | 578M | 9.71 | 15.20 |
| POOL | 172.57 | 6.3B | 11.9% | 50.66% | 26.6 | 3.35 | 1.5B | 152.70 | 305.63 |
| FSV | 135.67 | 5.9B | 0.0% | 29.18% | 19.5 | 1.87 | 1.5B | 119.41 | 189.05 |
| BMI | 126.48 | 3.7B | 23.1% | 52.24% | 26.2 | 1.22 | 241M | 112.09 | 204.00 |
| LAZ | 36.09 | 3.5B | 10.2% | 55.79% | 10.4 | 0.41 | 847M | 34.13 | 58.75 |
| COCO | 58.95 | 3.4B | 15.9% | 61.70% | 28.8 | 0.53 | 230M | 39.46 | 85.83 |
| CURB | 26.52 | 3.1B | 26.0% | 38.94% | 71.0 | 0.07 | 66M | 22.30 | 32.15 |
| AMBP | 4.68 | 2.8B | 6.3% | 55.83% | 14.8 | 0.08 | 1.5B | 3.29 | 5.47 |
| VC | 87.25 | 2.3B | 18.0% | 38.67% | 9.1 | 2.30 | 935M | 83.49 | 126.95 |
| LNN | 107.36 | 1.1B | 12.9% | 44.73% | 22.2 | 0.98 | 150M | 97.27 | 148.00 |
| IIIN | 29.66 | 574M | 5.5% | 78.49% | 12.4 | 0.49 | 201M | 24.35 | 38.45 |
| MSM | 130.38 | – | 5.4% | 35.48% | 23.5 | 1.41 | 1.1B | 78.80 | 133.65 |
Thursday is the heaviest pre-market slate of the week: 40 names on the Briefing calendar, anchored by PG, UNP, VLO, BX, LMT, SPOT, CMCSA and HON, with NSC joining the freight read. The session tests three things. First, whether the energy-shock pass-through that is lifting refiners and chemicals (Dow's Q2 local price +20%, Valero's Q2 refining margin $23.62/bbl against $12.35) is still intact in Q3 or starting to roll over. Second, whether consumer and housing names can hold margin with the 10-year around 5.0-5.3% and one-year inflation expectations at 4.7%. Third, a late-cycle cluster of contract-heavy industrials (LMT, HON, DOV, SNA, ROP) after a week in which the Nasdaq lost 4.5% and the S&P 1.95%.
The macro overlay: the Fed hiked 25 bp in September and is in blackout; WTI is in the $90s; claims are expected near 200K and LEI also print today. LSEG has S&P Q3 earnings growth tracking above 30%, which is base effects and mega-cap. Staples (PG) and rails (UNP/NSC) are the volume-and-pricing barometers; BX and the regional banks are the credit and realization read.
PG ($159.35) - the guide is already low; the question is volume. Company-confirmed: results Thursday with the webcast at 8:30 a.m. ET (PG IR). Briefing consensus is $1.89 EPS on $22.82B, which is down y/y on EPS against roughly +2% on sales. FY27 guidance from the July release: all-in and organic sales +1% to +3% (brand/product discontinuations a 30-50 bp drag), core EPS $6.89-$7.11 against $6.89 in FY26, so flat to +3%. Management itemised about $0.56/share of headwinds: roughly $1B after tax of commodity, energy and freight cost, $150M higher net interest, $150M lower non-operating income, $50M FX. The FY26 exit was soft: Q4 organic sales flat, core EPS -3%, core operating margin -130 bp, Baby/Feminine/Family Care organic -2%. The restructuring program is $1.0-1.6B pre-tax over two years, more than half booked in FY26. The release does not quantify a separate tariff number, and it quotes Shailesh Jejurikar as CEO with no transition announced; we found nothing to support a CEO change. Watch pricing versus volume, gross margin, and whether the $5B buyback and $10B dividend plan holds. Stock is 5% under its 52-week high on 24% IV (about 1.5% daily-equivalent). Bulls point to the lowered bar; bears to cost inflation landing before pricing.
UNP ($289.04) - clean quarter expected; the merger is a calendar, not a catalyst. Company IR: release 8:45 a.m. ET. Consensus $3.47 on $7.12B versus Q2 adjusted EPS $3.41 on $6.9B. Q2: revenue +12% on fuel surcharge, volumes +2% (intermodal +4%, coal and renewables -14%), revenue per car +9%, adjusted OR 59.2% (fuel cost 120 bp). Management raised the EPS growth outlook to high-single digits and affirmed the $3.3B capital plan. Buybacks are nearly dormant ($26M year-to-date versus $2.7B a year earlier) while the Norfolk Southern deal is pending. Merger status per the STB: revised application filed April 30, accepted May 28, procedural schedule set August 18; comments and protests are due November 18, responsive applications the same day, rebuttals into early 2027, final briefs May 28, 2027, decision up to 90 days after the record closes. So nothing is decided this week. The tape question is coal and fuel against intermodal and pricing. 28% IV is about 1.8% daily-equivalent.
NSC ($326.92) - confirmed same morning. Company release: conference call 10:00 a.m. ET Thursday, results "in advance of the call"; the company page does not state a clock time, so the pre-open timing of the release is inferred. Workbook EPS is $3.47, identical to UNP's figure, which looks suspect and is worth checking against another feed. Read NSC's merger language against UNP's.
VLO ($444.71) - the print that carries the whole refining thread. Consensus $20.95 on $42.40B, against $3.66 a year ago and Q2 adjusted EPS of $12.54 (revenue not in hand). Q2 refining margin was $23.62/bbl on 2.95M b/d throughput; Renewable Diesel operating income was $717M ($2.52/gal) versus a $79M loss; diluted shares fell to 294M from 312M; payout was 59% of adjusted operating cash flow; Benicia was idled in April. The driver was Gulf Coast and North Atlantic diesel and gasoline margins, tied to the Middle East conflict and a Brent move to $105 in September. Consensus therefore assumes Q3 margins roughly 65% above Q2, which is a high bar. The stock is near its 52-week high ($461.52) with 56% IV (about 3.6% daily-equivalent). Watch Q4 throughput guidance, spreads since quarter-end, RD margin and RVO costs, and the buyback pace. Spreads rolling over from a spike are the bear point; a step-up in capital returns is the bull point.
LMT ($551.99) - backlog up, F-35 deliveries down. Consensus $7.52 on $20.46B. Q2: sales $20.1B (+11%), EPS $7.94 against $1.46 a year ago when $1.6B of reach-forward losses hit (classified Aeronautics program $950M, CMHP $570M, TUHP $95M). Record backlog $230.4B including the $35B THAAD award; Missiles and Fire Control backlog $87.9B versus $46.7B at year-end. F-35 deliveries were 19 in Q2 versus 50, 51 in the first half versus 97. FY26 guide was raised to sales $79.75-81.75B, EPS $29.95-30.65, FCF $7.0-7.2B. Watch whether any new charges appear on the classified Aeronautics program, F-35 delivery cadence, and missile ramp commentary. 33% IV is about 2.1% daily-equivalent.
HON ($211.01) - this is now Honeywell Technologies. The Aerospace spin (HONA) completed June 29, followed by a 1-for-2 reverse split; Solstice was carved out earlier. Consensus $2.16 on $5.01B versus Q2 adjusted EPS $1.95 on $5.2B (organic +4%, orders +16%, backlog about $20B). Q2 segments: Building Automation organic +9% (margin 27.1%), Process Automation -1% (orders +24%, LNG), Industrial Automation +4%. FY26 guide: sales $19.8-20.0B, organic +3-4% with +4-6% in H2, adjusted EPS $8.05-8.35, FCF about $2B. The PSS and WWS divestitures were due to close by early August; the 47% Quantinuum stake sits outside guidance. Check the Q3 date and clock time on the IR calendar; the IR page we reached showed the call at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday. 34% IV.
BX ($106.49) - the workbook number looks stale. Consensus is shown as $1.28, which equals the Q2 2025 DE/share; Q2 2026 DE was $1.52 (+26%), FRE $1.8B (+22%), inflows nearly $70B, realizations $414M, AUM $1.35T, credit dry powder $84B. Treat $1.28 as likely wrong. The stock sits near its 52-week low ($101.73 versus $165.14 high), which tells you what the tape thinks of private-credit scrutiny and the realization cycle. Watch fundraising, wealth-channel flows, exits, and credit marks. 47% IV.
SPOT ($527.00) - 6-K filer; FX and social charges. Consensus $2.85 on $4.98B; the company guides in euros. Q2: MAU 777M (1M below guide), subs 300M, revenue EUR 4.78B, gross margin 33.4%, operating income EUR 655M. Q3 guide: MAU 788M, subs 305M, revenue EUR 5.0B (FX tailwind about 200 bp), gross margin 32.9%, operating income EUR 670M including only EUR 9M of social charges at a $459.13 share price. The stock is about 15% above that reference, so social charges will run above plan. Gross margin is guided down sequentially. 55% IV (about 3.4%).
CMCSA ($21.91). Company IR: call 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus $0.99 on $29.21B versus Q2 adjusted EPS $1.04. Q2: broadband -167K, ARPU -3.8%, record wireless adds of 448K, Peacock first adjusted EBITDA profit ($189M, 48M subs), parks EBITDA -5% with Orlando softness continuing into Q3. On June 29 Comcast announced a plan to separate NBCUniversal and Sky into a separate public company, roughly a year out; buybacks are paused. Management guided to "modest improvement" in Connectivity and Platforms from Q3. Shares are near the 52-week low.
DOW ($29.95) - consensus implies a sharp sequential drop. Q2 operating EPS $1.44 (consensus $1.25) on sales $12.1B (+20%), local price +20%, volume -1%. Workbook consensus is $0.63 on $11.20B, so the street expects Q3 to give back more than half of Q2; this is either a roll-over in polyethylene pricing or a stale figure. Self-help is more than $1.3B in 2026; the Barry, U.K. siloxanes plant was shut in the quarter. The dividend was halved in 2025 (paid $253M in Q2). Watch pricing, European volumes and the dividend language.
PHM / NVR - margins are the story. PHM Q2: EPS $2.48, home sale gross margin 25.0% (27.0% a year ago), orders +6%, buybacks $373M; Q3 consensus is $2.62 on $4.15B. NVR Q2: EPS $83.96 (missed), gross margin 19.2% (21.5%), orders +9% with ASP -5%, cancellations 14.9%; Q3 consensus is $102.77. Price-versus-pace and incentive commentary are the read.
NOK ($9.14) - 6-K FOREIGN FILER. Nokia reports its Q3 on October 22 (company calendar), Helsinki morning. Carl's EDGAR watcher will not catch a 6-K. Q2: comparable operating profit EUR 434M (9% margin), Network Infrastructure +12% with Optical +20%, AI and cloud sales EUR 446M and orders EUR 2.8B; Q3 guide is +3% to +7% sequential with similar operating profit. Optical supply and memory are bottlenecks. Consensus $0.07 on $5.07B. 66% IV.
PCG ($13.08) - power thread. Q2 core EPS $0.40; FY26 guide $1.64-1.66 reaffirmed; over 12 GW of data-center projects in its territory; wildfire liability reform is the live issue. Consensus $0.42. The release said nothing on equity issuance. 65% IV.
Aerospace and metals: CRS ($377.09, consensus $3.03 on $831M, 57% IV) is the premium-alloy aero barometer; TTMI ($93.88, $1.26, 99% IV) is the defense and AI-hardware PCB read.
Transport and industrial: AAL ($11.88, EPS -$0.33 on $16.2B, 12% short) is the freight-adjacent travel read; R ($238.39, $4.15), DOV ($195.80, $2.85), SNA ($367.25, $4.93), ALLE ($156.54, $2.50), ROP ($382.71, $5.79), LNN ($107.36, $0.98), MSM ($130.38, $1.41), IIIN ($29.66, $0.49), BMI ($126.48, $1.22, 23% short).
Consumer and housing-adjacent: TSCO ($33.16, $0.41), POOL ($172.57, $3.35, 12% short), COCO ($58.95, $0.53), CURB ($26.52, $0.07), VC ($87.25, $2.30).
Financials: regional banks and the credit read: HBAN ($15.30, $0.38), BPOP ($158.89, $3.88), VLY ($12.66, $0.33). NDAQ ($93.97, $1.02), CBRE ($133.08, $1.96), LAZ ($36.09, $0.41), ORI ($39.66, $0.79). Last week's bank prints showed broadly fine credit.
Health and other: DGX ($235.00, $2.87), FSV ($135.67, $1.87), AMBP ($4.68, $0.08).
PG, UNP and NSC set the consumer and freight read for the CSX and LUV Wednesday-night prints already out and for the afternoon names. VLO feeds XOM (Friday) and the energy cost base for DOW and PG. HON and DOV give the industrial read before TXN and IBM. NOK is the optical and AI-network read ahead of LRCX and WDC. PHM and NVR inform MHO and the housing complex. BX is the funding-strain barometer.
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 117.96 | 125.0B | 1.8% | 43.76% | 11.6 | 1.94 | 6.3B | 76.05 | 135.29 |
| WDC | 327.05 | 124.3B | 4.9% | 79.40% | 22.8 | 4.08 | 4.1B | 117.23 | 799.87 |
| BE | 219.69 | 65.2B | 8.1% | 94.37% | 57.1 | 0.67 | 1.1B | 75.70 | 351.28 |
| FIX | 1429.94 | 50.6B | 2.8% | 73.69% | 26.0 | 12.85 | 3.4B | 770.47 | 2073.99 |
| VRSN | 302.33 | 27.3B | 2.2% | 39.43% | 27.0 | 2.42 | 440M | 208.86 | 312.48 |
| OMC | 80.56 | 22.1B | 8.8% | 33.24% | 7.4 | 2.67 | 6.2B | 66.33 | 89.57 |
| SSNC | 84.07 | 19.7B | 3.3% | 32.21% | 10.6 | 1.77 | 1.7B | 61.40 | 89.93 |
| DECK | 85.30 | 11.7B | 9.7% | 57.66% | 10.6 | 1.79 | 1.5B | 77.20 | 122.29 |
| REXR | 36.84 | 8.4B | 7.2% | 36.44% | 29.0 | 0.23 | 236M | 32.14 | 44.38 |
| KNSL | 365.24 | 8.3B | 10.9% | 45.60% | 15.1 | 5.11 | 477M | 287.20 | 462.82 |
| COLB | 28.44 | 8.0B | 3.9% | 28.48% | 8.6 | 0.77 | 688M | 24.45 | 33.68 |
| APPF | 212.13 | 7.5B | 10.2% | 72.59% | 25.2 | 1.79 | 294M | 142.56 | 265.02 |
| MXL | 70.60 | 6.5B | 7.5% | 121.75% | 31.5 | 0.56 | 210M | 12.77 | 128.30 |
| RNG | 75.44 | 6.3B | 16.5% | 79.89% | 14.3 | 1.27 | 667M | 24.14 | 81.90 |
| ASB | 28.96 | 5.5B | 5.3% | 23.41% | 9.2 | 0.76 | 464M | 23.87 | 32.46 |
| ABCB | 79.72 | 5.3B | 6.5% | 31.91% | 13.0 | 1.68 | 328M | 69.58 | 93.22 |
| SIGI | 89.16 | 5.3B | 4.1% | 37.07% | 9.8 | 1.93 | 1.4B | 72.78 | 100.40 |
| BYD | 70.04 | 5.1B | 8.5% | 34.38% | 8.4 | 1.65 | 1.0B | 65.00 | 91.41 |
| ENVA | 177.89 | 4.4B | 9.5% | 53.35% | 8.3 | 4.40 | 1.0B | 108.72 | 267.45 |
| SLM | 21.81 | 4.1B | 10.4% | 41.27% | 6.9 | 0.20 | 361M | 17.77 | 31.06 |
| KRC | 34.83 | 4.1B | 16.1% | 33.28% | 99.0 | 0.09 | 267M | 27.36 | 43.58 |
| WSFS | 76.35 | 3.9B | 7.4% | 23.30% | 11.1 | 1.62 | 289M | 50.80 | 82.94 |
| RHI | 33.31 | 3.4B | 23.4% | 66.10% | 16.7 | 0.47 | 1.4B | 21.83 | 46.70 |
| KN | 33.50 | 2.9B | 7.5% | 54.13% | 20.7 | 0.36 | 172M | 20.57 | 42.93 |
| CUBI | 74.78 | 2.5B | 11.2% | 37.34% | 8.3 | 2.13 | 205M | 62.76 | 84.38 |
| SAM | 180.82 | 1.9B | 24.5% | 50.19% | 16.4 | 4.21 | 523M | 158.68 | 264.46 |
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | 165.30 | 45.0B | 18.9% | 106.91% | 46.1 | -1.24 | 905M | 73.52 | 299.86 |
| FCFS | 215.26 | 9.3B | 6.5% | 45.32% | 17.2 | 2.63 | 1.1B | 146.77 | 238.93 |
| UBSI | 46.69 | 6.4B | 5.0% | 26.29% | 13.6 | 0.93 | 326M | 34.68 | 49.62 |
| TFX | 130.43 | 5.5B | 15.0% | 48.20% | 11.0 | 1.89 | 565M | 100.18 | 145.00 |
| EXP | 170.01 | 5.2B | 7.9% | 41.88% | 13.7 | 3.95 | 634M | 160.02 | 245.53 |
| TVTX | 49.60 | 4.7B | 17.5% | 50.84% | 39.8 | 0.49 | 196M | 22.59 | 68.73 |
| ITGR | 126.70 | 4.3B | 10.9% | 3.24% | 22.4 | 1.68 | 457M | 62.00 | 126.80 |
| BFH | 102.56 | 3.9B | 11.8% | 48.63% | 7.6 | 3.23 | 1.0B | 59.16 | 114.53 |
| OSIS | 194.98 | 3.1B | 16.3% | 49.55% | 17.8 | 1.65 | 396M | 186.50 | 311.72 |
| CBZ | 54.78 | 3.0B | 4.1% | 167.83% | 12.2 | 1.26 | 722M | 24.29 | 56.41 |
| IMAX | 50.82 | 2.8B | 18.4% | 60.65% | 29.0 | 0.92 | 159M | 31.27 | 57.73 |
| EVTC | 31.19 | 1.9B | 6.3% | 40.28% | 7.1 | 0.98 | 273M | 21.81 | 34.41 |
| XPRO | 16.16 | 1.8B | 9.4% | 106.27% | 12.0 | 0.29 | 434M | 12.44 | 19.23 |
| MPT | 3.04 | 1.8B | 32.8% | 62.68% | 6.7 | 0.00 | 263M | 3.00 | 6.47 |
| THRM | 29.04 | 1.6B | 8.4% | 48.88% | 11.1 | 0.65 | 402M | 27.00 | 48.35 |
| HZO | 52.37 | 1.2B | 10.7% | 27.78% | 34.5 | 0.05 | 543M | 21.42 | 52.56 |
| NXH | 1.58 | 172M | 13.8% | 132.74% | 12.9 | -0.42 | 495M | 1.46 | 9.18 |
Thursday after the close is the heaviest single-theme session of the week: a memory-cycle barometer (WDC), the power/grid names (BE, FIX), a precious-metals bellwether (NEM) and a cluster of consumer-credit and regional-bank prints, all landing after a week in which the Nasdaq Composite lost 4.48% and the 10-year sat around 5%. Twenty-three names are confirmed for the session, plus unconfirmed Thursday names the page places here; FIX and WSFS are confirmed after the close by their own announcements, while NBIS is not (see the end).
The test for the AI complex is whether supply-side prints still show pricing and backlog at a time when the tape is questioning how build-outs get financed. WDC (hard-drive pricing and exabyte demand), BE (on-site power for data centers) and FIX (data-center mechanical and electrical) each give a different slice of that evidence. The test for the rest is the labor and credit tape: RHI for staffing, ENVA/SLM for consumer credit, and a regional-bank group that follows a week of banks reporting broadly fine credit.
WDC ($327.05) — the memory-cycle read, 59% below the $800 high and about 37% below the post-print price in August. Company-confirmed after the close Thursday, call 4:30 p.m. ET. Briefing consensus is EPS $4.08 on revenue $4.14B; the company guided fiscal Q1 to revenue $4.1B plus or minus $100M, gross margin 55%-56%, opex $390-400M and EPS $4.00 plus or minus $0.15, so consensus sits at the top of the range on EPS. The August print was a beat (revenue $3.75B, +44% y/y; non-GAAP EPS $3.56; gross margin 54.4%; $672M of buybacks in the quarter) and the stock fell about 9% anyway, because exabyte shipments grew 22% y/y versus roughly 30% in recent quarters and the guide was only slightly above consensus (RBC flagged that margins may be near a peak and price growth moderating). The bull evidence: blended price per terabyte accelerated from high single digits to the high teens, cloud was 89% of revenue, long-term agreements are being discussed out to 2029-2031, and total debt is down to $1.05B with long-term debt at zero. The bear evidence: the exabyte growth deceleration, pricing structure on the LTAs still being negotiated, and a stock that has now given back far more than the August reaction, which tells you the market is pricing a peak-margin debate, not a miss. What matters: the December-quarter guide against the $4.1B September-quarter base, exabyte growth versus the 25%-plus long-run frame, and gross margin against 55-56%. IV is 79%, short interest 5%. For the AI-capex thread this is the cleanest hyperscaler-demand read of the week.
NEM ($117.96) — gold below last quarter's realized price. Release after the close, call 5:30 p.m. ET (company announcement). Consensus is EPS $1.94 on revenue $6.30B versus Q2 adjusted EPS of $2.10. Q2 realized gold was $4,414/oz (down $486 from Q1); spot closed Friday near $4,166 per a price aggregator, so Carl's TOS screen governs. Q2 by-product AISC was $1,621/oz (Cadia seismic downtime) against full-year guidance of $1,680/oz and 5.26Moz attributable production (plus or minus 5%); the company said Q3 production would be broadly in line with Q2 with unit costs and development capex rising. Cash was $9.0B with net cash of $3.4B, $1.7B of buybacks since the prior call and about $4.3B left on the $6B authorization. Divestiture proceeds have been small ($100M year to date), so that line is not a support. Watch: AISC trajectory against the $1,680 guide, whether guidance holds, buyback pace if gold stays below Q2 levels. IV 44%.
BE ($219.69) — power-for-data-centers at 57x forward earnings. Company-confirmed after the close, call 5:00 p.m. ET. Consensus EPS $0.67 on revenue $1.07B, which is below Q2's non-GAAP EPS of $0.78 on revenue of $1,065M (+165% y/y; gross margin 34.3%). Full-year guidance, raised in July: revenue $3.9-4.2B, non-GAAP gross margin about 34%, operating income $800-900M, EPS $2.55-2.85. The release cited approval by all major US hyperscalers and more than a dozen neoclouds and labs but gave no backlog figure, so backlog and any new anchor-customer disclosure are what the call has to supply. The Oracle, AEP and Brookfield arrangements are not in the Q2 release and are unverified here. With $65B of market cap, IV of 94%, 8% short and a stock 37% off its $351 high, the setup is one where a guide that merely confirms the range is likely read against a high bar, and a raise or margin step is read against a market that has been selling power-and-AI names.
FIX ($1,429.94) — data-center mechanical, 31% below the $2,074 high. Company-confirmed after the close Thursday, call Friday 10:00 a.m. CT. Consensus EPS $12.85 on revenue $3.40B versus Q2 EPS $12.53 and revenue $3.27B (+50%). Q2 gross margin was 25.9% (mechanical 25.6%, electrical 26.4%), operating margin 17.1%, free cash flow $999M, backlog $14.06B (from $12.45B in March and $8.12B a year earlier). Technology was 58% of revenue versus 40% a year ago. The company gives no numeric guidance, only "optimistic about the remainder of 2026 and well into 2027", and says it expands modular capacity (over 3.5M sq ft, targeting about 5M by late summer 2027) only against multiyear commitments. Watch: sequential backlog, whether technology share keeps rising, and whether margin expansion has reached a ceiling. IV 74%.
NBIS ($165.30) — date unconfirmed; probably not this week. We could not find a company date announcement; MarketBeat estimates November 10 and Earnings Whispers November 11, both before the open, which would be consistent with the Q2 report (August 12, pre-market). It is a foreign filer that furnishes 6-K, so the EDGAR watcher will not catch it. Workbook consensus: EPS -$1.24, revenue $905M (MarketBeat shows -$0.75 on $905M). Q1 context: ARR $1.92B, 2026 targets of revenue $3.0-3.4B and ARR $7-9B, contracted power above 3.5GW, a Meta agreement of up to $27B, and $6.3B raised in the quarter ($2B Nvidia equity, $4.3B converts) with debt-market issuance flagged next. IV 107%, 19% short: the funding-strain thread, with CoreWeave's roughly $50B debt as the comparison.
VRSN ($302.33), SSNC ($84.07). VRSN, consensus EPS $2.42 on $440M, trades at 27x forward and 3% under its $312 high with IV only 39%; the numbers that matter are .com renewal pricing, domain base growth and buyback pace. Prior-quarter details could not be retrieved. SSNC, EPS $1.77 on $1.69B, is 7% below its high at 10.6x forward; software-for-financials with AI-substitution questions at a low multiple.
DECK ($85.30) — date unconfirmed (Briefing: Thursday; Earnings Whispers estimates October 27). Consensus EPS $1.79 on $1.51B (Earnings Whispers $1.82 on $1.55B). The July print was flagged as an EPS miss with raised guidance and the stock has drifted down about 9% since. The tension is HOKA/UGG growth deceleration against tariff costs; stock 30% below its $122 high at 10.7x, 10% short, IV 58%.
APPF ($212.13), RNG ($75.44) — agents versus seats. APPF: EPS $1.79 on $294M, 25x forward, IV 73%. RNG: EPS $1.27 on $667M, IV 80%, 16% short, stock near its $81.90 high after rising from $24; its July report was labeled a beat-and-raise, and the AI-receptionist product line puts seat compression against new AI revenue. Earnings Whispers shows RNG at November 9, so timing is unverified.
MXL ($70.60) — IV 122%. EPS $0.56 on $210M; the stock is 45% off its $128 high and drifted down about 24% after the July report (a miss with above-consensus guidance). Earnings Whispers estimates October 26; treat the date as unconfirmed. Optical and infrastructure demand and the Silicon Motion arbitration were not verified.
Consumer credit. ENVA (EPS $4.40, $1.00B) and SLM (EPS $0.20, $361M) are the post-print tape for subprime online lending and student loans; both at 8x and 7x forward. BFH (EPS $3.23) is a morning print on October 22 with a call at 8:30 a.m. ET, so its credit-quality numbers will be known before this session opens.
Insurers. KNSL (EPS $5.11, $477M; 11% short, 21% below its high) and SIGI (EPS $1.93, $1.35B) report into a week where CB (Tuesday) sets the commercial pricing frame; HIG is Monday October 26 after the close.
Regional banks. COLB ($0.77), ASB ($0.76), ABCB ($1.68), CUBI ($2.13), WSFS ($1.62; confirmed after the close, call Friday 1:00 p.m. ET). IV runs 23-37%, with CUBI 11% short; the questions are NII, deposit costs and commercial real estate reserves.
REITs. REXR (FFO $0.23; 29x forward, industrial/Southern California rents) against KRC ($0.09; 16% short; office occupancy). A pairing of industrial strength versus office stress.
Labor read. RHI ($0.47 on $1.36B, 23% short, IV 66%) is the staffing and white-collar hiring barometer; watch the revenue trend and any AI-driven reduction in demand for project work.
Others. BYD (EPS $1.65, $1.00B; Las Vegas regional gaming), SAM (EPS $4.21; 25% short), KN (Knowles, $0.36), plus MPT and IMAX with unconfirmed dates listed below.
WDC's guide informs Micron (cycle barometer) and the hyperscaler capex debate set up by META and IBM on Wednesday. BE and FIX together bracket the power/grid thread: BE for behind-the-meter supply, FIX for build-out labor and mechanical content, with NVT (Friday, unconfirmed) following. RNG and APPF feed the agents-versus-seats frame alongside PEGA (Tuesday) and SAP (Wednesday). ENVA/SLM/BFH inform Friday's AXP and the consumer-credit tape. NEM sets up precious-metals sentiment into next week.
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | 313.27 | 211.8B | 2.1% | 31.53% | 15.1 | 4.51 | 20.1B | 290.97 | 387.49 |
| SLB | 49.50 | 73.5B | 4.7% | 40.40% | 15.9 | 0.61 | 9.3B | 32.50 | 60.46 |
| RCI | 31.98 | 17.3B | 0.0% | 40.17% | 9.5 | 1.24 | 5.4B | 29.26 | 41.14 |
| BAH | 74.26 | 8.9B | 6.5% | 51.18% | 16.5 | 1.48 | 2.8B | 59.50 | 109.10 |
| ALV | 115.99 | 8.4B | 7.9% | 37.75% | 10.1 | 2.23 | 2.7B | 99.16 | 132.17 |
| FLG | 11.08 | 4.6B | 13.9% | 41.97% | 7.6 | 0.07 | 545M | 10.57 | 15.44 |
| GNTX | 21.05 | 4.4B | 9.3% | 44.77% | 10.1 | 0.50 | 670M | 20.48 | 26.99 |
| FHB | 24.90 | 3.0B | 16.3% | 47.53% | 12.2 | 0.59 | 229M | 23.26 | 30.58 |
| HTH | 36.85 | 2.1B | 7.3% | 71.37% | 14.9 | 0.64 | 320M | 31.75 | 40.41 |
Friday is a small pre-market slate with a big name on top: American Express closes out the consumer-credit run (SYF, ALLY, COF earlier in the week) against a tape that is already off a bruising week (Nasdaq -4.48%, S&P 500 7,659, 10-year around 5%+, another Fed hike in the conversation). SLB gives the second oilfield-services read after HAL on Tuesday, with oil in the $90s but Middle East activity still disrupted. Autoliv and Gentex are the auto-supply tail after GM. Booz Allen is the federal-services test, and Flagstar and Hilltop add two bank credit reads.
Macro overlay: flash PMIs at 8:45 CT (consensus manufacturing 55.5, services 58.0) and the final University of Michigan survey at 9:00 CT (last 46.3, 1-year inflation expectations 4.7%). The Fed is in blackout; the FOMC meets Oct 27-28.
AXP ($313.27) — the consumer-credit capstone, 19% below the $387.49 high. Briefing consensus is EPS $4.51 on revenue $20.12B; IV is 31.5%. Q2: EPS $4.53 on revenue $19.64B (+10%), billed business $455.8B (+9% FX-adjusted, fastest in three years per management), net write-off rate 2.0%, flat y/y. Provisions of $1.1B were helped by a reserve release against a prior-year build, so provision comparisons deserve scrutiny. Expenses rose 12%, ahead of revenue, partly on the U.S. Platinum refresh; the question is whether fee uplift is now visibly covering that cost. Guidance: 2026 revenue growth raised to about 10%, EPS held at $17.30-$17.90. With H1 EPS at $8.81, a $4.51 Q3 leaves roughly $3.98-$4.58 for Q4 to land in the range, so any change to the EPS range is the clean tell. Bull: spending acceleration, flat credit, Platinum fee growth. Bear: expenses outrunning revenue, a thinner reserve release, any delinquency uptick.
SLB ($49.50) — international, ChampionX, and the Middle East. Consensus EPS $0.61 on revenue $9.27B; IV 40.4%. Q2 adjusted EPS was $0.55 on $8.97B (+3% sequentially), EBITDA margin 21.2% (-284 bp year on year), free cash flow $716M, and $648M of buybacks. International revenue was $6.67B (-3% y/y), Middle East down 13% sequentially on the regional conflict; ChampionX added $870M of revenue and without it revenue was down 5% y/y. Management sees growth broadening outside the Middle East but called recovery timing uncertain. Data Center Solutions (AI-capex thread): first-half revenue +63%, >$1B run rate targeted by year-end. Consensus revenue implies about 3% sequential growth; watch margin versus 21.2% and the read against HAL.
RCI (US$31.98) — Canadian, 6-K filer. Consensus EPS 1.24 on revenue 5.39B (currency not specified in the workbook; Rogers reports in Canadian dollars); IV 40.2%. Q2: service revenue +8% to C$5.1B, adjusted EBITDA +3% to C$2.4B, but wireless service revenue was flat, ARPU fell to C$54.25 on competition, and postpaid net adds were 22,000. The MLSE buyout of the remaining 25% (C$4.35B cash, closing Q4) drove a Q2 net loss of C$665M on a C$1.03B charge; a minority stake sale is planned to help fund it. Full-year outlook was held.
BAH ($74.26) — federal IT, 32% below the $109.10 high. Consensus EPS $1.48 on $2.81B; IV 51.2%. Fiscal Q2 reports on a March fiscal year. Q1 FY27: revenue $2.8B (-4.2%), adjusted EPS $1.81, adjusted EBITDA $334M (11.9% margin), backlog $39.5B, book-to-bill 1.5x, headcount about 30,900 (from 33,400). FY27 guide: revenue $11.2-$11.7B, adjusted EBITDA $1.24-$1.29B, EPS $6.00-$6.35, FCF $825-$925M. National Security demand is accelerating while Civil and Commercial fell to $772M from $923M. The $1.48 consensus sits well below Q1's $1.81.
ALV ($115.99) — auto safety, the GM/GNTX read. Consensus EPS $2.23 on $2.72B; IV 37.8%. Autoliv's own IR page puts the report at 12:00 CET (about 6:00 ET) Friday. Q2: sales $2.80B (+3.3%, organic +1.0%), adjusted margin 9.6%, adjusted EPS $2.43. Guidance reiterated: organic sales about flat, adjusted margin 10.5-11%, operating cash flow about $1.2B, buybacks $300-$500M, with global light-vehicle production assumed down about 2.5%. Q3 margin guided near the first-half 9.3% with a "significant" Q4 step-up. Tariff recovery was 83% in Q2.
GNTX ($21.05) — near the low end of its range. Consensus EPS $0.50 on $670M; IV 44.8%. Q2 adjusted EPS was $0.58 on $651.3M (-1%), but about $18M of IEEPA tariff reimbursements reduced cost of goods sold, flattering the 37.0% gross margin. FY guide: revenue $2.65-$2.75B unchanged; gross margin raised to 34.5-35.5%. Q3 global production seen -2%.
FLG ($11.08) — Flagstar, the former NYCB, near its $10.57 low. Consensus EPS $0.07 on $545M; IV 42%; short interest 14%. Q2 EPS $0.06, NII $440M, NIM 2.13%, net charge-offs $100M (0.66% annualized, up from 0.52%), non-accrual loans $2.8B (4.59% of loans), CET1 13.16%, a new $250M buyback, return on tangible common equity 1.29%. The path to profitability is a margin-versus-credit story. No numeric guidance.
HTH ($36.85) — Hilltop Holdings. Consensus EPS $0.64 on $320M; IV 71.4%, the highest on the board, with 7% short interest. Hilltop combines a Texas bank, a mortgage originator and a broker-dealer. I did not pull the Q2 release; the date and time of the call were not confirmed from Hilltop's IR page.
FHB ($24.90): First Hawaiian confirmed Friday before the open, call 1:00 p.m. ET (7:00 a.m. Hawaii). Consensus EPS $0.59 on $229M.
AXP reads to the consumer-credit tape (SYF, COF, ALLY, and UoM sentiment 46.3). SLB reads to HAL and the Middle East, and to the data-center thread. ALV and GNTX read to GM, with production assumptions of -2.5% to -3% for 2026. BAH informs federal services names. FLG and HTH read to the regional banks reporting Monday-Thursday.
Confirmed: Microsoft FY27 Q1 call Wed Oct 28. FOMC Oct 27-28, decision Wed Oct 28, 2:00 ET. Intel Q3 call Thu Oct 29, 2:00 PDT. Chevron Q3 call Fri Oct 30, 11:00 ET; Exxon releases 5:30 CT Fri Oct 30 (call 8:30 CT); nVent Fri Oct 30 (call 9:00 ET); WisdomTree Fri Oct 30 (call 11:00 ET). Expected, not confirmed: Alphabet, Amazon and Apple that week; DaVita around Oct 28 after the close (aggregator estimate); Carter's late in the week.
| Sym | Last | Mkt Cap | Short % | Impl Vol | Fwd PE | EPS est | Rev est | 52wk Lo | 52wk Hi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVA | 187.31 | 12.0B | 15.9% | 53.17% | 10.0 | 3.57 | 3.5B | 101.00 | 247.49 |
| CRI | 31.45 | 1.2B | 25.0% | 63.57% | 16.4 | 0.88 | 752M | 27.86 | 44.44 |