Doximity
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $66 | ~$70 | $47 – $90 |
| May 2026 | Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25% | Modest upside |
Verdict: DOCS reported FY26 revenue of $644.9M (+13%) with FCF of $317.5M (+19%). Q4 active prescribers crossed 800,000 — an engagement record[1]. Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 missed by ~$0.02. AI signals are strong but monetization is still building[2]. As a high-margin physician network with steady pharma/health-system marketing demand, DOCS commands a premium multiple. The bull case requires AI workflow tool monetization; bear case reflects pharma marketing cyclicality.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | ~$66 | [3] |
| FY26 revenue | $644.9M (+13%) | [1] |
| Q4 FY26 revenue | $145.4M | Non-GAAP EPS $0.26 [1] |
| FY26 FCF | $317.5M (+19%) | [1] |
| Active prescribers | 800K+ | Record engagement [1] |
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | Assumptions | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) | AI workflow tools monetize, pharma marketing budgets expand, 35x forward P/E | $90 |
| Base (50%) | Hit consensus, +13% growth, 28x forward P/E | $70 |
| Bear (25%) | Pharma cyclical softness, AI monetization stalls, 20x forward P/E | $47 |
| Probability-weighted | Network-effect moat; AI execution swing factor; pharma cyclical risk. | ~$70 |
Key Risks
- Pharma cyclicality: Pharmaceutical marketing budgets tied to drug launch cycles and macro spending.
- AI monetization: Heavy engagement but conversion to dollars is gradual.
- Hospital marketing weak: Hospital health-system marketing budgets pressured by reimbursement.
- Competition: Sermo, Epocrates compete; LinkedIn for healthcare professionals.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: AI workflow ARR disclosure, large pharma upfront contracts, hospital recovery.
- Downside: Pharma budget cuts, AI monetization delays, network engagement decline.
Sources
[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001516513/000151651326000017/doximity-2026331xex991.htm
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOCS/
Disclaimer
This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.