IREN Limited
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $50.43 | ~$50 | $25 – $80 |
| May 2026 | Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25% | Approximately fair; HPC transition |
Verdict: IREN trades at $48 with $17B market cap on TTM revenue of $757M (68.4% GM, 20.9% net margin). The company is mid-pivot from pure Bitcoin mining to an AI cloud infrastructure provider — AI cloud revenue doubled to $34M in the most recent quarter while overall revenue fell 22% sequentially to $145M[1]. IREN raised $3.0B in 1.00% convertible senior notes and made strategic acquisitions (Mirantis, Awaken). Bull case requires successful AI cloud scaling; bear case is BTC mining cyclical pressure combined with execution risk on the AI transition.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $48 | 5/20/26 range $46-$50 [2] |
| Market cap | $17.06B | [2] |
| TTM revenue | $757M | 68.4% GM, 20.9% NM [2] |
| Latest quarter revenue | $145M (-22% QoQ) | [1] |
| AI cloud revenue | $34M (doubled) | Growth segment [1] |
| Convertible notes raised | $3.0B at 1.00% | Funds expansion [3] |
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | Assumptions | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) | AI cloud scales to $200M+, BTC stable, multiple supports premium | $80 |
| Base (50%) | BTC + AI cloud both grow modestly, multiple holds near current | $50 |
| Bear (25%) | BTC crashes + AI cloud doesn't scale, multiple compresses | $25 |
| Probability-weighted | Hybrid BTC/HPC story; success requires execution on both fronts. | ~$50 |
Key Risks
- BTC price exposure: Mining revenue tied directly to BTC; halving + price moves drive results.
- AI cloud execution: Transition from mining to AI hosting is non-trivial; customer wins critical.
- Convertible dilution: $3B converts dilute equity on conversion.
- Power costs: Energy intensity is the cost base; rate moves impact margins.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: AI cloud customer win disclosure, AI revenue >$100M run-rate, BTC to $100K+.
- Downside: BTC under $60K, AI cloud growth stalls, mining costs spike.
Sources
[1] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/iren/
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IREN/
[3] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/software/nasdaq-iren/iren
Disclaimer
This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.