Marriott Intl
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $366.25 | ~$355 | $305 – $420 |
| Close 5/18/26 | Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25% | Bear → Bull blend (EV/EBITDA + P/E) |
Verdict: MAR is approximately fairly valued at current levels. The stock trades near the midpoint of our $305–$420 range, with the central case (~$355) just below spot. Upside requires either multiple expansion (today's ~18.5x NTM EV/EBITDA sits below the 10-yr median of ~20x[1] but is exposed to compression as the 10-yr UST yields 4.68%[2]) or above-guidance EBITDA delivery on RevPAR and net-rooms growth. Downside protection comes from $4.4B+ of 2026 capital returns[3] and high-quality, asset-light fee earnings (~21% margin, +15% YoY in Q1)[4].
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $361 | Close 5/18/26 ($353 5/17) [5][6] |
| 52-week range | $253.56 – $380.00 | All-time high $378.72 on 4/20/26 [6] |
| Market cap | $93.1B | [5] |
| Diluted shares (est.) | ~258M | Implied from mkt cap/price; Q1 buyback of 2.1M shares for $0.7B [4] |
| Total / Net debt | $16.5B / $16.0B | Includes $1.45B new notes (4.5% '33, 5.1% '38) [7] |
| Enterprise value | ~$109B | Market cap + net debt |
| 2026E Adj EBITDA | $5.88B – $5.97B | +9-11% YoY guide [3] |
| 2026E Adj EPS | $11.38 – $11.63 | Co. guidance [3] |
| 2026E RevPAR / rooms | +2-3% / +4.5-5% | RevPAR raised from +1.5-2.5% on Q1 strength [4] |
| NTM EV/EBITDA | ~18.4x | Current LTM 22.3x [1] |
| NTM P/E | ~31x | Fwd P/E 29.8x per StockAnalysis [8] |
| Beta / WACC (range) | 0.72 – 0.82 / 7.3% – 9.7% | Median 9.69% (vs 10-yr median 9.90%) [9][10] |
MACRO CONTEXT — RATES & MARKET LEVELS
The 10-yr UST yields 4.68% (May 19) — a 16-month high — putting upward pressure on equity discount rates[2]. The S&P 500 trades at ~21x forward earnings (well above the 5-yr 19.9x and 10-yr 18.9x averages), with an earnings yield of ~4.78%[11] — barely 10 bps above the 10-yr Treasury versus a historical ~3-4 pt cushion. Implication for MAR: rich market multiples plus a high-rate backdrop argue against using a peak-cycle multiple, even though MAR's asset-light fee model traditionally commands a premium 18-22x EV/EBITDA band.
METHODOLOGY
We anchor the fair value on three lenses: (1) NTM EV/EBITDA applied to the midpoint of 2026E guidance ($5.93B Adj EBITDA), (2) NTM P/E on 2026E Adj EPS ($11.50 midpoint), and (3) Forward (2027E) EV/EBITDA assuming +9% growth ($6.46B). Probability weights: Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25%. Net debt held flat at $16.0B; share count flat at 258M.
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | EV/EBITDA on 2026E | P/E on 2026E EPS | EV/EBITDA on 2027E | Blended FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) RevPAR +4%, 21x mid-cycle multiple, buyback acceleration |
21x → $421 | 32x → $368 | 20x → $439 | ~$410 |
| Base (50%) Hit 2026 guide midpoint, multiple compresses modestly with rates |
18.5x → $363 | 28x → $322 | 17.5x → $376 | ~$355 |
| Bear (25%) US lodging softens, multiple compresses to LT median low end |
16x → $306 | 24x → $276 | 15x → $314 | ~$300 |
| Probability-weighted | ~$363 | ~$322 | ~$376 | ~$355 |
Blended fair value (~$355) = simple average across the three method-level probability-weighted outputs ($363 / $322 / $376). The wider $305–$420 range bookends bear and bull across all three lenses.
PEER COMPARISON
| Company | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA (recent) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott (MAR) | ~30x | ~22x LTM / ~18x NTM | Largest scale, asset-light franchisor [8][1] |
| Hilton (HLT) | ~33x | ~29x | Pure asset-light, premium multiple [12][13] |
| IHG | ~26x | ~22x | Asset-light, EU/UK overweight [14] |
| Hyatt (H) | ~32x | ~12-15x | More owned hotels, lower multiple [15] |
| Choice (CHH) | ~16x | ~13-15x | Smaller scale, lower-tier brands [16] |
| Wyndham (WH) | ~19x | ~13-15x | Economy/midscale tilt [16] |
MAR trades at a discount to Hilton on both P/E and EV/EBITDA — explained largely by HLT's lower leverage and pure asset-light mix — but at a premium to the smaller franchisors. The midpoint of asset-light comps (~18-22x EV/EBITDA) anchors our 16x bear / 18.5x base / 21x bull range.
Key Risks & Watch Points
- Rate path: Every 50bp rise in the 10-yr at constant ERP compresses an asset-light fee multiple by roughly 1-2 turns of EBITDA. With 10Y now 4.68% [2], multiples are skewed to downside.
- RevPAR softening: Q1 2026 RevPAR +4.2%; guide is only +2-3% for the year — implies deceleration. A US group/business-transient stall could push EBITDA toward the low end of guidance.
- Pipeline conversion: +4.5-5% net rooms growth depends on developer access to construction financing in a high-rate environment.
- Capital returns: $4.4B+ of 2026 returns [3] is a floor — a credit downgrade or M&A tilt could redirect cash.
- Geo/regional mix: Greater China and EU exposure. Geopolitical or FX shocks can swing reported revenue.
- Cyber/data: Lingering reputational and regulatory tail from prior breaches; continued event risk for fee businesses.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: Guide raise to >$6.0B Adj EBITDA, RevPAR re-acceleration to +4-5%, or a Fed pivot that pushes the 10-yr below 4.25%.
- Downside: RevPAR turns negative for two consecutive quarters, 10-yr breaches 5%, or net rooms growth falls below 4%.
Sources
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ev2ebitda/MAR/EV-to-EBITDA/Marriott%2BInternational%2BInc
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
[3] https://www.rttnews.com/3619700/marriott-issues-2026-guidance.aspx
[5] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAR/
[6] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MAR/marriott/stock-price-history
[8] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mar/statistics/
[9] https://www.gurufocus.com/term/wacc/MAR
[10] https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/mar/discount-rate
[11] https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-may-8-2026
[12] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLT/key-statistics/
[13] https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/hlt/relative-valuation/ratio/enterprise-value-to-ebitda
[14] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IHG/key-statistics/
[15] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/H/key-statistics/
[16] https://companiesmarketcap.com/hilton-hotels/pe-ratio/
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