Marriott Intl
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $391 | ~$355 | $330 – $380 |
| As of June 8, 2026 | House view: Market Weight | Now above fair value |
June 2026 update: The header figures, verdict and house view above reflect our June 8, 2026 portfolio review. The detailed snapshot and bull/base/bear tables below predate this refresh and are retained for context.
House View: Market Weight (June 2026). A great asset-light machine trading at a full multiple. Q1 2026 beat — EPS $2.72 vs $2.54, revenue $6.65B, RevPAR +4.2%, adjusted EBITDA +15% — with FY EPS guided to $11.43 and >$4.4B of planned capital returns. At ~$391 that's ~34x forward earnings, priced like the high-ROIC compounder it is, while the Middle East conflict dents EMEA/APAC with a Q2 trough flagged. Fair value $330–380, so at $391 the stock now sits above our range; nothing to chase here — a pullback toward the high-$200s/low-$300s would be the more interesting entry.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $361 | Close 5/18/26 ($353 5/17) [5][6] |
| 52-week range | $253.56 – $380.00 | All-time high $378.72 on 4/20/26 [6] |
| Market cap | $93.1B | [5] |
| Diluted shares (est.) | ~258M | Implied from mkt cap/price; Q1 buyback of 2.1M shares for $0.7B [4] |
| Total / Net debt | $16.5B / $16.0B | Includes $1.45B new notes (4.5% '33, 5.1% '38) [7] |
| Enterprise value | ~$109B | Market cap + net debt |
| 2026E Adj EBITDA | $5.88B – $5.97B | +9-11% YoY guide [3] |
| 2026E Adj EPS | $11.38 – $11.63 | Co. guidance [3] |
| 2026E RevPAR / rooms | +2-3% / +4.5-5% | RevPAR raised from +1.5-2.5% on Q1 strength [4] |
| NTM EV/EBITDA | ~18.4x | Current LTM 22.3x [1] |
| NTM P/E | ~31x | Fwd P/E 29.8x per StockAnalysis [8] |
| Beta / WACC (range) | 0.72 – 0.82 / 7.3% – 9.7% | Median 9.69% (vs 10-yr median 9.90%) [9][10] |
MACRO CONTEXT — RATES & MARKET LEVELS
The 10-yr UST yields 4.68% (May 19) — a 16-month high — putting upward pressure on equity discount rates[2]. The S&P 500 trades at ~21x forward earnings (well above the 5-yr 19.9x and 10-yr 18.9x averages), with an earnings yield of ~4.78%[11] — barely 10 bps above the 10-yr Treasury versus a historical ~3-4 pt cushion. Implication for MAR: rich market multiples plus a high-rate backdrop argue against using a peak-cycle multiple, even though MAR's asset-light fee model traditionally commands a premium 18-22x EV/EBITDA band.
METHODOLOGY
We anchor the fair value on three lenses: (1) NTM EV/EBITDA applied to the midpoint of 2026E guidance ($5.93B Adj EBITDA), (2) NTM P/E on 2026E Adj EPS ($11.50 midpoint), and (3) Forward (2027E) EV/EBITDA assuming +9% growth ($6.46B). Probability weights: Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25%. Net debt held flat at $16.0B; share count flat at 258M.
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | EV/EBITDA on 2026E | P/E on 2026E EPS | EV/EBITDA on 2027E | Blended FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) RevPAR +4%, 21x mid-cycle multiple, buyback acceleration |
21x → $421 | 32x → $368 | 20x → $439 | ~$410 |
| Base (50%) Hit 2026 guide midpoint, multiple compresses modestly with rates |
18.5x → $363 | 28x → $322 | 17.5x → $376 | ~$355 |
| Bear (25%) US lodging softens, multiple compresses to LT median low end |
16x → $306 | 24x → $276 | 15x → $314 | ~$300 |
| Probability-weighted | ~$363 | ~$322 | ~$376 | ~$355 |
Blended fair value (~$355) = simple average across the three method-level probability-weighted outputs ($363 / $322 / $376). The wider $305–$420 range bookends bear and bull across all three lenses.
PEER COMPARISON
| Company | Forward P/E | EV/EBITDA (recent) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott (MAR) | ~30x | ~22x LTM / ~18x NTM | Largest scale, asset-light franchisor [8][1] |
| Hilton (HLT) | ~33x | ~29x | Pure asset-light, premium multiple [12][13] |
| IHG | ~26x | ~22x | Asset-light, EU/UK overweight [14] |
| Hyatt (H) | ~32x | ~12-15x | More owned hotels, lower multiple [15] |
| Choice (CHH) | ~16x | ~13-15x | Smaller scale, lower-tier brands [16] |
| Wyndham (WH) | ~19x | ~13-15x | Economy/midscale tilt [16] |
MAR trades at a discount to Hilton on both P/E and EV/EBITDA — explained largely by HLT's lower leverage and pure asset-light mix — but at a premium to the smaller franchisors. The midpoint of asset-light comps (~18-22x EV/EBITDA) anchors our 16x bear / 18.5x base / 21x bull range.
Key Risks & Watch Points
- Rate path: Every 50bp rise in the 10-yr at constant ERP compresses an asset-light fee multiple by roughly 1-2 turns of EBITDA. With 10Y now 4.68% [2], multiples are skewed to downside.
- RevPAR softening: Q1 2026 RevPAR +4.2%; guide is only +2-3% for the year — implies deceleration. A US group/business-transient stall could push EBITDA toward the low end of guidance.
- Pipeline conversion: +4.5-5% net rooms growth depends on developer access to construction financing in a high-rate environment.
- Capital returns: $4.4B+ of 2026 returns [3] is a floor — a credit downgrade or M&A tilt could redirect cash.
- Geo/regional mix: Greater China and EU exposure. Geopolitical or FX shocks can swing reported revenue.
- Cyber/data: Lingering reputational and regulatory tail from prior breaches; continued event risk for fee businesses.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: Guide raise to >$6.0B Adj EBITDA, RevPAR re-acceleration to +4-5%, or a Fed pivot that pushes the 10-yr below 4.25%.
- Downside: RevPAR turns negative for two consecutive quarters, 10-yr breaches 5%, or net rooms growth falls below 4%.
Sources
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ev2ebitda/MAR/EV-to-EBITDA/Marriott%2BInternational%2BInc
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
[3] https://www.rttnews.com/3619700/marriott-issues-2026-guidance.aspx
[5] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MAR/
[6] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MAR/marriott/stock-price-history
[8] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/mar/statistics/
[9] https://www.gurufocus.com/term/wacc/MAR
[10] https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/mar/discount-rate
[11] https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-may-8-2026
[12] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLT/key-statistics/
[13] https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/hlt/relative-valuation/ratio/enterprise-value-to-ebitda
[14] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IHG/key-statistics/
[15] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/H/key-statistics/
[16] https://companiesmarketcap.com/hilton-hotels/pe-ratio/
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This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or instrument or to pursue any strategy. Information may be incomplete, estimated, delayed, or inaccurate. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.