Everspin
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $29.68 | ~$28 | $15 – $50 |
| May 2026 | Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25% | Approximately fair; speculative |
Verdict: MRAM is a small-cap pure-play on magnetoresistive random-access memory (MRAM), a specialty memory technology. FY25 revenue was $55.2M (+10% YoY) with MRAM product sales of $48.3M. Q1 2026 revenue of $14.9M was approximately flat sequentially with near-breakeven net income[1]. The stock has surged from $5.49 to $31.72 (5.8x) over 52 weeks on AI / aerospace / defense MRAM narratives. Valuation is hard to justify on financials — bull case requires structural MRAM adoption in AI accelerators or defense systems; bear case reflects multiple collapse if growth disappoints.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $31.72 | 52w range $5.49-$51.50 [2] |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $14.87M | -$0.3M net loss [1] |
| FY25 revenue | $55.2M (+10%) | MRAM products $48.3M [3] |
| Trailing P/E | n/m | Near-breakeven earnings [2] |
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | Assumptions | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) | MRAM adoption in AI/defense scales, revenue doubles to $110M, multiple supports premium | $50 |
| Base (50%) | Steady mid-teens growth, modest profitability, multiple compresses from speculative peak | $28 |
| Bear (25%) | AI/defense MRAM narrative doesn't materialize, multiple collapses | $15 |
| Probability-weighted | Speculative specialty memory play; narrative-driven multiple. | ~$28 |
Key Risks
- Adoption: MRAM has been 'next big thing' for years; broad adoption remains slow.
- Competition: DRAM, NAND, embedded memory all compete in adjacent applications.
- Customer concentration: Small revenue base concentrates risk.
- Capital needs: Specialty fab investments require periodic capital raises.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: Design wins in AI accelerators, defense system adoption, profitability inflection.
- Downside: Revenue stagnation, profitability slip back to losses, multiple collapse.
Sources
[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001438423/000162828026028464/mram-20260331.htm
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRAM/
[3] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001438423/000162828026014611/mram-20251231xexx991_.htm
Disclaimer
This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.