Ollie's Bargain Outlet
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $85 | ~$105 | $76 – $140 |
| May 2026 | Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25% | ~24% upside; PT $138 |
Verdict: OLLI generates $2.27B in revenue (+8%) with steady cash flow and a strong unit growth runway. Q1 FY26 earnings out June 10. Analyst consensus target of $138 implies 60%+ upside from current levels[1]. The discount retail theme — beneficiary of consumer trade-down, beneficiary of Big Lots / 99¢ Only liquidation closures — supports the long-term thesis. Bull case requires comp acceleration + unit expansion to 1,000 stores; bear case reflects discretionary slowdown and earnings compression.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $85.16 | [2] |
| FY25 revenue | $2.27B (+8%) | [1] |
| FY25 net income | $199.8M (+10%) | [1] |
| Next FY EPS estimate | $4.48 | Consensus [1] |
| Analyst PT | $137 | Strong Buy; 13 analysts [1] |
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | Assumptions | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) | Comp acceleration +5%, unit expansion ahead of plan, multiple expands to 30x EPS | $140 |
| Base (50%) | Mid-single-digit growth, multiple holds at 23x EPS | $105 |
| Bear (25%) | Discretionary slowdown, margin compression, multiple compresses to 17x EPS | $76 |
| Probability-weighted | Trade-down discount retailer; structural unit growth + macro tailwind from competitor closures. | ~$105 |
Key Risks
- Comp variability: Closeout merchandise sourcing varies; comps can swing.
- Consumer cycle: Discretionary discount; low-income consumer health drives traffic.
- Inventory management: Closeout model exposes to inventory risk if sourcing slows.
- Real estate: Unit growth requires real estate availability; competing big-box closures help.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: Q1 beat, Big Lots store conversions, comp re-acceleration.
- Downside: Q1 miss, inventory write-downs, comp deceleration to negative.
Sources
[1] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/olli/
[2] https://www.investing.com/equities/ollies-bargain-outlet-holdings-inc
Disclaimer
This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.