On Holding
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $37.11 | ~$49 | $34 – $66 |
| 5/19/26 | Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25% | ~30% upside to weighted FV |
Verdict: ONON looks undervalued versus its growth profile. The stock has retraced ~40% from its 52-week high of $61.29[1] on tariff fears (KeyBanc cut PT to $43 citing tariff exposure)[2], yet Q1 2026 delivered +26.4% constant-currency revenue growth and a 450bp Adj EBITDA margin expansion to 21.0%[3]. The company is debt-free with ~$1B in cash[4] and reaffirmed full-year +23%+ cc growth with 19.5-20.0% Adj EBITDA margin[5]. Our blended fair value of ~$49 implies ~30% upside; Wall Street consensus PT is ~$57-60[6].
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $37.84 | 5/19/26 ($38.10 5/18) [1] |
| 52-week range | $31.41 – $61.29 | Off ~38% from highs [1] |
| Market cap | $12.5B (~CHF 11.4B) | [7] |
| Diluted shares | ~331M | Class A + Class B [4] |
| Cash / Debt | $1.1B / ~$0 | Debt-free; net cash position [4] |
| Enterprise value | ~$11.4B | Market cap minus net cash |
| Q1 2026 revenue | CHF 832M (+26.4% cc) | $1.06B reported; record quarter [3] |
| Q1 2026 Adj EBITDA | CHF 174M (21.0% mgn) | +45.4% YoY; +450bp margin expansion [5] |
| 2026E revenue | ≥CHF 3.51B (+23% cc) | Guidance reaffirmed [5] |
| 2026E gross margin | ≥64.5% | Despite tariff headwinds [8] |
| 2026E Adj EBITDA margin | 19.5% – 20.0% | Raised from prior guide [3] |
| Implied 2026E EBITDA | ~CHF 693M (~$780M) | Midpoint of guide |
| Forward P/E (NTM) | ~21x | Trailing 41x; growth de-rate [9] |
| EV/EBITDA (NTM) | ~14-15x | LTM 21-27x range [10] |
| Consensus PT (range) | $57 / $30-$84 | Avg ~$57, median ~$62, KeyBanc $43 [6][2] |
MACRO CONTEXT — RATES & MARKET LEVELS
The 10-yr UST yields 4.68% — a 16-month high — adding pressure to long-duration growth multiples[11]. The S&P 500 trades at ~21x forward earnings, with earnings yield of 4.78% (only ~10bps over Treasuries)[12]. Implication for ONON: the rate backdrop has already driven a sharp de-rating in high-growth consumer names — ONON's forward P/E has compressed to ~21x from peak >50x. ONON is the rare high-growth name now trading at a market-multiple-discount with 23%+ revenue growth and a net-cash balance sheet, providing relative cushion against further rate moves.
METHODOLOGY
We anchor the fair value on three lenses: (1) EV/EBITDA on 2026E (~$780M USD midpoint of guide), (2) P/E on 2026E EPS (~$1.85 estimate based on Q1 trajectory), (3) Forward EV/EBITDA on 2027E assuming +25% growth (~$975M USD). Probability weights: Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25%. Net cash held flat at $1.1B; share count flat at 331M.
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | EV/EBITDA on 2026E | P/E on 2026E EPS | EV/EBITDA on 2027E | Blended FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) Tariff pass-through + share gains, EBITDA mgn >20%, multiple re-expansion |
25x → $62.50 | 35x → $64.75 | 22x → $68.60 | ~$65 |
| Base (50%) Hit guide, ~23% growth, 19.5% EBITDA mgn, multiple stays near current |
18x → $45.90 | 25x → $46.25 | 16x → $50.80 | ~$48 |
| Bear (25%) Tariff drag, growth slows to mid-teens, mgn -100bp, multiple compresses |
13x → $34.10 | 18x → $33.30 | 12x → $39.00 | ~$35 |
| Probability-weighted | ~$47 | ~$48 | ~$52 | ~$49 |
Blended fair value (~$49) = simple average of the three method-level probability-weighted outputs ($47 / $48 / $52). The wider $34-$66 range bookends bear and bull across all three lenses. Wall Street average PT is ~$57; median ~$62.
PEER COMPARISON
| Company | Fwd P/E | Revenue Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| On Holding (ONON) | ~21x | +23% (2026E) | Highest-growth peer; net cash; 19.5-20% EBITDA mgn [9] |
| Lululemon (LULU) | ~9-12x | low-single-digit | Severely de-rated; growth concerns [13] |
| Deckers (DECK) | ~13-16x | ~6-9% (HOKA decel) | Direct comp via HOKA; high-margin model [14] |
| Nike (NKE) | ~27x | low-single-digit | Brand reset; near-term margin headwinds [15] |
| Adidas (ADS) | ~25-30x | ~10% | European peer; Samba/Gazelle momentum [16] |
ONON is the rare combination of high growth (+23%) and low forward P/E (~21x) in the peer set. On a PEG basis (~21x / 23% = 0.9), ONON looks attractively priced. The risk: peers like LULU and DECK demonstrate how quickly premium-growth multiples can collapse if growth disappoints.
Key Risks & Watch Points
- Tariffs: Primary near-term overhang. KeyBanc cut PT to $43 specifically on tariff exposure [2]. Management guides ≥64.5% gross margin despite tariffs.
- Multiple de-rating: Trailing P/E has fallen from >50x to ~41x; further compression toward Deckers (~15x) is the bear case.
- Growth deceleration: Q1 +26.4% cc; guide implies +20-22% rest of year. Any quarter sub-20% would test the premium multiple.
- Brand/category cycle: Performance running is faddish — see HOKA's deceleration. ONON's lifestyle/CloudTilt diversification mitigates but doesn't eliminate.
- FX (CHF/USD): Strong CHF compresses reported revenue; cc growth +26.4% but USD growth ~22% in Q1.
- Leadership / governance: Recent co-CEO changes; founder influence remains significant via dual-class shares.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: Guide raise on revenue or margin, tariff relief, sustained 25%+ growth in Asia-Pacific, multiple re-rating back to 25x+ EV/EBITDA.
- Downside: Two consecutive quarters of sub-20% cc growth, gross margin guide cut to below 64%, tariff escalation in Vietnam, or a meaningful brand misstep.
Sources
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ONON/
[3] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001858985/000185898526000014/a26q1-ex991xpressrelease.htm
[4] https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-durables/nyse-onon/on-holding/health
[6] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/onon/forecast/
[7] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/onon/market-cap/
[9] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/onon/statistics/
[10] https://www.gurufocus.com/term/enterprise-value-to-ebitda/ONON
[11] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10
[12] https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-may-8-2026
[13] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LULU/key-statistics/
[14] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DECK/key-statistics/
[15] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NKE/key-statistics/
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This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or instrument or to pursue any strategy. Information may be incomplete, estimated, delayed, or inaccurate. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.