Wix.com
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $48 | ~$70 | $42 – $90 |
| As of June 8, 2026 | House view: Speculative | Negative book; value rests on cost-out |
June 2026 update: The header figures, verdict and house view above reflect our June 8, 2026 portfolio review. The detailed snapshot and bull/base/bear tables below predate this refresh and are retained for context.
House View: Speculative (June 2026). The growth story broke and the fix was financial engineering. WIX is down ~78% from ~$222 a year ago; Q1 2026 revenue rose +14% to $541M but adjusted EPS of $0.68 badly missed the ~$1.21–1.25 Street and swung to a net loss. Management funded a $1.6B Dutch auction at $92 (Bank Hapoalim credit line plus a Durable Capital PIPE), retiring ~30% of shares but leaving negative equity and real debt, then cut headcount ~20% (~$150M run-rate savings). The overhang is competitive — AI site/design tools (Canva, Base44 economics, Anthropic's Claude Design) are cited as direct threats — and targets were slashed toward a ~$86 mean. With negative book, fair value (~$70) rests on cost-out execution and the reduced share count, not growth: watchable, not ownable, until margins and bookings stabilize.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $55 | 52w low post-Q1 [2] |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $541M (+14%) | Bookings +15% [3] |
| Q1 2026 EPS | $0.68 | vs cons $1.26 (miss) [1] |
| BASE44 ARR | $150M | Mid-May milestone [3] |
| Forward P/E | ~9-13x | Sources vary; recent depressed [4] |
| Tender offer | $1.6B | Reduced share count [3] |
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | Assumptions | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) | Harmony AI scales, Base44 to $300M ARR, 22x forward P/E | $93 |
| Base (50%) | Hit FY26 guide, mid-teens growth, 15x forward P/E | $65 |
| Bear (25%) | AI investments dilutive, growth slows to +10%, multiple compresses to 10x | $42 |
| Probability-weighted | Post-selloff value setup; AI/Base44 monetization is the swing factor. | ~$65 |
Key Risks
- AI marketing spend: Margin compression from incremental customer acquisition spend on AI Studio/Base44.
- Competition: Shopify, Squarespace, GoDaddy compete; Webflow targets premium tier.
- Subscriber churn: Long-term retention metrics softening as cohort behavior matures.
- FX (Israeli shekel): Operating expense exposure to ILS movements.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: Base44 ARR to $200M+, margin recovery, large self-serve cohort win.
- Downside: Q2 miss, marketing spend extends, BASE44 stalls.
Sources
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WIX/
[3] https://www.stocktitan.net/news/WIX/wix-reports-first-quarter-2026-n4elwa17sfze.html
[4] https://www.gurufocus.com/term/forward-pe-ratio/WIX
Disclaimer
This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.