Warby Parker
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $24.37 | ~$30 | $20 – $42 |
| May 2026 | Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25% | Approximately fair value |
Verdict: WRBY delivered Q1 2026 revenue beat ($242M, +8.3%) but missed EPS materially ($0.03 vs. $0.15)[1], causing post-print volatility. The Adj EBITDA of $29.6M beat guide, and the company reaffirmed FY26 outlook of $959-976M revenue with $117-119M Adj EBITDA[2]. At 46x forward P/E[3], WRBY trades like a high-growth specialty retailer but execution disappointments and slower active-customer growth (+4.8%) raise risk. Net cash position ($288M) provides downside cushion.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $28.50 | Post-Q1 volatility [4] |
| Market cap | $2.79B | [3] |
| Diluted shares | ~122M | [3] |
| Cash | $288M | Net cash; no debt [2] |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $242.5M (+8.3%) | Beat [2] |
| Q1 2026 Adj EBITDA | $29.6M | Beat guidance [2] |
| Q1 2026 GM | 54.0% | Down from 56.3% [2] |
| Active customers | 2.69M (+4.8%) | Decelerating [2] |
| FY26 revenue guide | $959M – $976M | Reaffirmed [2] |
| FY26 Adj EBITDA guide | $117M – $119M | [2] |
| Forward P/E | 46x | Premium specialty retail [3] |
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | Assumptions | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) | RevPAR-like comp acceleration to +12%, 50 new stores, EBITDA mgn expands to 14%, multiple stays 35x EPS | $42 |
| Base (50%) | Hit guide ($968M / $118M EBITDA), modest store growth, multiple compresses to 25x EPS | $30 |
| Bear (25%) | Active customer growth stalls, GM pressure continues, multiple compresses to 18x EPS | $22 |
| Probability-weighted | Asymmetric to upside if comp re-accelerates; net cash provides $2/share floor. | ~$30 |
Key Risks
- Active customer deceleration: +4.8% growth is slowest in years; suggests acquisition saturation.
- GM compression: 54% vs. 56% YoY on freight + occupancy; trend bears watching.
- Store-rollout execution: 50 new stores in 2026 is aggressive; productivity must hold.
- Macro discretionary: Eyewear is replacement-driven but premium pricing exposed to consumer weakness.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: Comp re-acceleration to +10%+, GM stabilization, new store productivity in line.
- Downside: Guidance cut, active customer decline, sustained GM erosion.
Sources
[2] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001504776/000150477626000009/warbyparkerincearningsrele.htm
[3] https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/wrby/statistics/
[4] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WRBY/
Disclaimer
This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.