Astera Labs
| CURRENT PRICE | PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED FAIR VALUE | FAIR VALUE RANGE |
|---|---|---|
| $273.02 | ~$210 | $135 – $290 |
| May 2026 | Bull 25% / Base 50% / Bear 25% | Approximately fair; PT $200-$297 |
Verdict: ALAB delivered record Q1 2026 revenue of $308M (+93% YoY, +14% QoQ) with adj EPS of $0.61 (beat $0.54). Q2 guide of $355-365M (+15-18% QoQ) and 73% non-GAAP GM continues the AI infra growth narrative[1]. Scorpio X/P PCIe 6 family now drives 30%+ of quarterly revenue growth. At forward EV/Sales ~26-28x[2], valuation is rich but consistent with AI infra peers. Analyst PT range $200-$297. Bull case requires Scorpio scaling + share gains in PCIe Gen 7; bear case is multiple compression on any growth deceleration.
CURRENT SNAPSHOT
| Metric | Value | Notes / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $213.91 | Post-earnings AH [3] |
| Market cap | $34.25B | [3] |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $308.4M (+93%) | +14% QoQ [1] |
| Q1 2026 adj EPS | $0.61 | Beat $0.54 [1] |
| Q2 2026 revenue guide | $355M – $365M | +15-18% QoQ [1] |
| Q2 2026 non-GAAP GM guide | ~73% | [1] |
| Forward EV/Sales | ~26-28x | [2] |
| Analyst PT range | $200 – $297 | [2] |
BULL / BASE / BEAR SCENARIOS
| Scenario (weight) | Assumptions | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| Bull (25%) | Scorpio scales to $1B+ ARR, PCIe Gen 7 design wins, multiple stays premium | $290 |
| Base (50%) | Hit Q2 guide, +75% growth FY26, multiple holds at 25x EV/Sales | $210 |
| Bear (25%) | AI capex slows, multiple compresses to 16x EV/Sales | $135 |
| Probability-weighted | AI connectivity leader; valuation full but supported by execution. | ~$210 |
Key Risks
- Hyperscaler capex: AI infra spending the dominant demand driver; pause hits hard.
- Competition: Broadcom, Marvell, Credo all compete; in-house ASIC at hyperscalers possible.
- Multiple compression: EV/Sales >25x leaves no margin for error.
- Customer concentration: Top customers represent large share; loss material.
What Would Change Our View
- Upside: Q2 beat above $365M, PCIe Gen 7 design win, FY26 guide raise.
- Downside: Q2 miss, customer concentration loss, AI capex pause.
Sources
[1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001736297/000173629726000017/q126exhibit991.htm
[2] https://seekingalpha.com/article/4899124-astera-labs-stock-superb-q1-but-faster-times-ahead
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALAB/
Disclaimer
This output is for informational and research-assistance purposes only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting, or other professional advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify material facts independently and consult qualified advisors before making decisions.