A long/short equity firm specializing in deep, independent research with a disciplined short-side orientation. We identify asymmetric opportunities where consensus meets fragility.

Valuation snapshots

33 reports · May 2026
Marriott Intl
Valuation Snapshot
MAR · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$355
RANGE $305 – $420
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$410$355$300
On Holding
Valuation Snapshot
ONON · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$49
RANGE $34 – $66
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$65$48$35
Adobe
Valuation Snapshot
ADBE · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$320
RANGE $210 – $470
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$445$340$230
Salesforce
Valuation Snapshot
CRM · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$215
RANGE $145 – $290
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$355$240$170
Credo Technology
Valuation Snapshot
CRDO · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$185
RANGE $100 – $260
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$225$160$95
SolarEdge
Valuation Snapshot
SEDG · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$50
RANGE $25 – $90
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$85$50$29
First Solar
Valuation Snapshot
FSLR · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$275
RANGE $200 – $380
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$365$275$190
Enphase
Valuation Snapshot
ENPH · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$60
RANGE $40 – $95
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$87$62$48
Strategy
Valuation Snapshot
MSTR · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$280
RANGE $135 – $550
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$550$265$135
Warby Parker
Valuation Snapshot
WRBY · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$30
RANGE $20 – $42
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$42$30$22
Applied Materials
Valuation Snapshot
AMAT · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$440
RANGE $320 – $565
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$565$440$320
Affirm
Valuation Snapshot
AFRM · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$72
RANGE $45 – $100
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$100$72$45
Upstart
Valuation Snapshot
UPST · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$45
RANGE $25 – $75
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$75$45$25
Paycom
Valuation Snapshot
PAYC · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$155
RANGE $112 – $195
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$195$155$112
Paylocity
Valuation Snapshot
PCTY · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$120
RANGE $85 – $145
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$145$120$85
US Physical Therapy
Valuation Snapshot
USPH · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$72
RANGE $48 – $95
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$95$72$48
Arista Networks
Valuation Snapshot
ANET · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$150
RANGE $100 – $200
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$200$150$100
Fair Isaac
Valuation Snapshot
FICO · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$1,150
RANGE $890 – $1,425
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$1,425$1,150$890
Wix.com
Valuation Snapshot
WIX · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$65
RANGE $42 – $93
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$93$65$42
Doximity
Valuation Snapshot
DOCS · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$70
RANGE $47 – $90
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$90$70$47
Zillow Group
Valuation Snapshot
ZG · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$50
RANGE $30 – $70
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$70$50$30
Powerus (pre-merger)
Valuation Snapshot
PUSA · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
n/m
RANGE $3 – $25
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$25$10$3
Unusual Machines
Valuation Snapshot
UMAC · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$15
RANGE $7 – $25
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$25$15$7
Circle Internet
Valuation Snapshot
CRCL · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$130
RANGE $70 – $185
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$185$130$70
Coinbase
Valuation Snapshot
COIN · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$235
RANGE $130 – $360
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$360$235$130
Ollie's Bargain Outlet
Valuation Snapshot
OLLI · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$105
RANGE $76 – $140
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$140$105$76
Everspin
Valuation Snapshot
MRAM · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$28
RANGE $15 – $50
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$50$28$15
Applied Optoelectronics
Valuation Snapshot
AAOI · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$160
RANGE $85 – $250
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$250$160$85
AXT Inc
Valuation Snapshot
AXTI · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$70
RANGE $40 – $130
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$130$70$40
Applied Digital
Valuation Snapshot
APLD · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$40
RANGE $20 – $65
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$65$40$20
IREN Limited
Valuation Snapshot
IREN · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$50
RANGE $25 – $80
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$80$50$25
Astera Labs
Valuation Snapshot
ALAB · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$210
RANGE $135 – $290
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$290$210$135
Arm Holdings
Valuation Snapshot
ARM · MAY 2026
Probability-Weighted FV
~$225
RANGE $150 – $290
SCENARIOBULLBASEBEAR
Fair value$290$225$150

Markets reward those who
question the narrative

Sikuli Capital was founded on a simple observation: the most durable alpha exists not in following the crowd, but in understanding why the crowd is wrong. Our research process is built to systematically identify businesses where consensus expectations diverge materially from fundamental reality.

We believe that short selling, practiced with rigor and discipline, is among the most intellectually demanding — and rewarding — disciplines in public markets. Every position represents a thesis tested through layers of primary research, forensic analysis, and structural reasoning.

01

Intellectual Honesty

We pursue truth over narrative. Our analysts are trained to challenge their own convictions as rigorously as they challenge market consensus.

02

Asymmetric Conviction

We size positions based on the magnitude of the opportunity and our confidence in the thesis, not sector allocation models or benchmark awareness.

03

Patience as Edge

Our best ideas often take quarters to materialize. We are structured to withstand the mark-to-market pain that drives weaker hands out of correct positions.

04

Capital Preservation

Protecting capital is not defensive — it is the foundation of compounding. Our short book provides natural downside protection across market regimes.

Research-driven. Forensically precise.

Primary Research

Channel Intelligence

Proprietary networks of industry contacts, former executives, and domain specialists inform every thesis. We go beyond the 10-K to understand the competitive realities that drive outcomes.

Forensic Analysis

Accounting & Disclosure

Rigorous examination of financial statements, revenue recognition practices, and footnote disclosures to identify deteriorating quality or aggressive accounting before the market recognizes the shift.

Structural Analysis

Disruption & Decay

We map the structural forces — technological disruption, regulatory change, competitive dynamics — that erode business models over multi-year horizons, often well before inflection points appear in the numbers.

Risk Framework

Portfolio Construction

Dynamic position sizing, correlation management, and systematic risk controls ensure that the inherent asymmetry of short selling is managed with institutional discipline.

Variant Perception

Consensus Mapping

We systematically deconstruct sell-side consensus, buy-side positioning, and retail sentiment to identify where expectations are most fragile and catalysts most imminent.

Global Context

Macro Awareness

While bottom-up in orientation, we maintain a global macro overlay that informs sector tilts, hedging strategy, and portfolio gross exposure through the cycle.

The short side demands
a different kind of firm

Short selling is not simply the inverse of going long. It requires differentiated sourcing, forensic conviction, superior risk management, and the temperament to maintain positions against powerful countervailing forces.

Sikuli Capital is purpose-built for this discipline. Our team, our culture, and our infrastructure are designed from the ground up to identify, underwrite, and manage short positions with the rigor they demand.

We focus on niche corners of the market where coverage is thin, narratives are fragile, and the informational edge available to deep research is greatest.

Short Book
Core Competency
Deep, thesis-driven short positions in overvalued, deteriorating, or structurally challenged businesses. Typical holding period of 6–18 months.
Long Book
Selective & Concentrated
High-conviction long positions in mispriced assets identified through the same forensic process, providing portfolio balance and absolute return contribution.
Net Exposure
Net Short Bias
Portfolio maintains a persistent net short orientation, calibrated dynamically based on opportunity set and market conditions.

Where we focus

Technology & Software
SaaS metrics decay, competitive moats under pressure from AI disruption, and consensus growth assumptions that overestimate durability.
Long / Short
Consumer & Retail
Brand erosion, inventory quality, channel shifting dynamics, and the gap between reported metrics and underlying consumer health.
Short Focus
Healthcare & Life Sciences
Pipeline valuation disconnect, regulatory risk asymmetry, and reimbursement dynamics that the market systematically misprices.
Long / Short
Industrials & Capital Goods
Cycle positioning, backlog quality, and accounting practices in capital-intensive businesses with complex revenue recognition.
Short Focus
Financial Services
Credit quality deterioration, asset-liability mismatches, and leverage embedded in structures designed to obscure true risk profiles.
Short Focus
Special Situations
Cross-sector opportunities arising from corporate events, regulatory catalysts, and structural dislocations that create time-bound asymmetric setups.
Long / Short

Built for conviction

Our team brings decades of combined experience across institutional investing, forensic accounting, and sector-specific domain expertise. Every member of the research team is empowered — and expected — to challenge prevailing assumptio